Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
OTT2
NJD1
OTT beat NJD 2-1, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 1.94. A. Forsberg stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| NJD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 13:16OTTZ. Ostapchuk0.10 xG
- 2nd 14:34NJDT. Tatar0.23 xG
- 3rd 2:50OTTA. Zub0.04 xG
Team Stats
OTTNJD
20Shots on goal26
2.21Expected goals1.94
44Shot attempts56
195v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/1
24Hits18
14Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways11
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.21 xGNJD 1.94 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:24 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:24 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 2:55 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:47 | 2:45 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 3:08 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:23 | 3:00 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:56 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 3:09 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:37 | 2:54 |
| A. Zub | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:08 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:12 | 3:01 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:34 | 2:59 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:17 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| L. Meriläinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:18 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:27 | 1:24 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 0:45 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 0:29 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 1:10 |
| S. Noesen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:23 | 0:50 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:13 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:58 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:30 | 0:36 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:47 | 1:17 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:17 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:43 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 57:36 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.7, NJD 3.1 | OTT 2, NJD 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 26.6, NJD 28.3 | OTT 20, NJD 26 |
| Win chance | NJD 56% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.9 | 1 | 1.21 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.6 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.4 | 4 | 1.03 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NJD S. Noesen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.9 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NJD O. Palat | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.3 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.8 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 1 | 0.09 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.