Game Recap: OTT 3, NJD 2, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

NJD2

OTT beat NJD 3-2, with the chances close: 2.29 expected goals to 2.43. NJD outshot OTT 27 to 19. L. Hughes led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Ullmark stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	3	0	3
NJD	0	1	1	2

2nd 4:05OTTB. Tkachuk0.10 xG
2nd 4:38OTTD. Batherson0.08 xG
2nd 7:13NJDN. HischierPP0.10 xG
2nd 8:44OTTD. PerronPP0.19 xG
3rd 19:36NJDE. Haula0.15 xG

Team Stats

OTTNJD

19Shots on goal27

2.29Expected goals2.43

41Shot attempts59

135v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play1/3

18Hits29

17Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways15

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.29 xGNJD 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT19 on goal, 3 scored

NJD27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	21:32	2:52
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	20:45	2:20
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	18:14	2:27
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	16:40	2:03
D. Perron	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:48	2:21
D. Batherson	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	15:38	1:58
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	2	13:23	2:26
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	17:38	0:10
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	14:47	2:39
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:43	0:00
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:55	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:44	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	25:39	2:12
T. Hamonic	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	20:12	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	23:35	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	22:57	2:37
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:54	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	10:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	23:21	4:42
N. Hischier	C	1	0	1	5	3	1	-1	2	22:11	4:43
C. Glass	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:11	0:16
E. Haula	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:10	0:00
T. Meier	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	20:57	4:47
D. Mercer	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:29	3:14
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	17:01	1:33
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:19	0:00
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	9:55	0:13
N. Foote	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:45	0:11
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:28	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:15	0:00
L. Hughes	D	0	2	2	4	1	4	0	0	26:37	4:45
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:42	0:11
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	19:35	0:00
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:41	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:39	0:15
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Allen	19	16	3	.842	57:18	Loss
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.9, NJD 3.2	OTT 3, NJD 2
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	OTT 27.5, NJD 29.2	OTT 19, NJD 27
Win chance	NJD 56%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.2	3	0.68	1	29%	1
NJD T. Meier	3.1	3	0.79	0	34%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.6	5	0.95	1	33%	1
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	4	1.07	1	29%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.1	2	0.56	0	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	0	0.54	1	9%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	3	0.47	0	10%	0
NJD D. Sprong	1.9	0	0.50	0	21%	0
OTT D. Cozens	1.9	0	0.49	1	19%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.8	0	0.82	1	25%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.8	4	0.62	1	22%	1
OTT S. Pinto	1.7	1	0.45	0	20%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.7	0	0.42	1	16%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.7	4	0.61	2	10%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.6	2	0.38	1	17%	1
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	2	0.47	0	23%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	1	0.30	0	7%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	1	0.48	1	20%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	1	0.56	1	20%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.4	2	0.33	0	15%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.4	1	0.38	1	17%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.39	0	19%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.2	1	0.16	1	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.2	0	0.08	0	2%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD N. Foote	1.1	1	0.32	0	16%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.0	0	0.28	0	15%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	0.9	0	0.21	0	12%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.13	0	5%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.9	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NJD N. Bastian	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
NJD B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NJD C. Lazar	0.8	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.24	0	5%	0
NJD D. Cholowski	0.6	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.