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Game Recap
OTT4
NJD1
OTT beat NJD 4-1, with the chances close: 2.69 expected goals to 2.93. NJD outshot OTT 30 to 20. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Zetterlund had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. L. Ullmark stopped 29 of 30.
Team Stats
OTTNJD
20Shots on goal30
2.69Expected goals2.93
39Shot attempts78
155v5 shots on goal24
1/5Power play0/2
21Hits11
30Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes13
16Giveaways14
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.69 xGNJD 2.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:46 | 6:34 |
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:20 | 3:40 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:53 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 6:34 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Halliday | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:26 | 3:19 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 6:25 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:28 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:03 | 6:16 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:02 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 3:50 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:00 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 27:53 | 6:18 |
| T. Kleven | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 23:37 | 0:04 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Yakemchuk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:25 | 4:07 |
| H. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 2:12 |
| A. Gritsyuk | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:42 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:08 | 2:12 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:12 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:42 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:42 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12:22 | 0:42 |
| A. Lombardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 11:43 | 2:12 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:53 | 2:04 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:50 |
| B. Pesce | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 2T. Stützle11:42D. Batherson10:36W. Foegele11:41
Line 3R. Greig14:20D. Cozens11:04A. Burakovsky8:47
Line 4N. Cousins8:43F. Zetterlund7:36S. Halliday5:07
Pair 1T. Kleven20:53C. Yakemchuk17:00
Pair 3H. Stanley10:57N. Matinpalo2:19
NJD
Line 2E. Rodrigues11:38A. Gritsyuk11:46D. Mercer10:02
Line 3J. Boqvist9:56A. Lombardi11:28C. Glass9:40
Line 4T. Meier10:16N. Hischier10:34L. Evangelista8:21
Pair 2B. Dillon13:54D. Chisholm14:05
Pair 3J. Siegenthaler13:34D. Hamilton14:47
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Prop Results
8 of 19 overs hit (42%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SOG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.5 | +120 | -145 | 2 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | +130 | -138 | 1 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 2.5 | +142 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.5 | +135 | -174 | 1 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 2.5 | -150 | +122 | 1 | Under |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 1.5 | +100 | -110 | 2 | Over |
| NJD A. Mantha | 1.5 | +115 | -125 | 1 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.5 | -165 | +130 | 2 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 1.5 | -175 | +150 | 3 | Over |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 1.5 | -130 | +105 | 4 | Over |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.5 | +100 | -135 | 4 | Over |
| NJD J. Bratt | 1.5 | -170 | +140 | 2 | Over |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.5 | +118 | -135 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 1.5 | -140 | +125 | 4 | Over |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | +100 | -110 | 1 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.5 | -164 | +135 | 1 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.5 | -165 | +160 | 2 | Over |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.5 | -168 | +130 | 1 | Under |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.5 | +100 | -120 | 1 | Under |
5 of 35 overs hit (14%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | G | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +300 | – | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +475 | -800 | 1 | Over |
| NJD A. Lombardi | 0.5 | +1000 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +380 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.5 | +2200 | -5000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD B. Pesce | 0.5 | +1800 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +480 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| NJD C. Glass | 0.5 | +750 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +850 | -2500 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +220 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Chisholm | 0.5 | +2400 | – | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +275 | -360 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +700 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Mercer | 0.5 | +600 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +500 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Boqvist | 0.5 | +900 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | +270 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Hughes | 0.5 | +160 | -180 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.5 | +2200 | -10000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +1300 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +300 | -370 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +625 | -1200 | 0 | Under |
| OTT M. Amadio | 0.5 | +650 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| OTT N. Cousins | 0.5 | +850 | -2000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | +190 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.5 | +2500 | -4000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT R. Greig | 0.5 | +550 | -700 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +750 | -2000 | 1 | Over |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +310 | -370 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +600 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.5 | +1800 | -2800 | 1 | Over |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +240 | -285 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +210 | -250 | 1 | Over |
| OTT W. Foegele | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
7 of 34 overs hit (21%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | A | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +225 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +260 | -360 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Lombardi | 0.5 | +500 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +265 | -325 | 0 | Under |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.5 | +600 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD B. Pesce | 0.5 | +400 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +230 | -310 | 1 | Over |
| NJD C. Glass | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +250 | -275 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +180 | -200 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +215 | -225 | 1 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +220 | -250 | 0 | Under |
| NJD D. Mercer | 0.5 | +400 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +310 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 0.5 | +400 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Boqvist | 0.5 | +550 | -900 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | +115 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Hughes | 0.5 | -105 | -110 | 1 | Over |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.5 | +400 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +330 | -375 | 1 | Over |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +160 | -205 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +140 | -165 | 0 | Under |
| OTT M. Amadio | 0.5 | +350 | -525 | 1 | Over |
| OTT N. Cousins | 0.5 | +425 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | +150 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.5 | +750 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| OTT R. Greig | 0.5 | +400 | -600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +425 | -650 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +260 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +145 | -180 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.5 | +600 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +270 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +110 | -130 | 1 | Over |
| OTT W. Foegele | 0.5 | +400 | -600 | 0 | Under |
6 of 19 overs hit (32%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | P | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 1.5 | +182 | -225 | 1 | Under |
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 0.5 | +100 | – | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +140 | -150 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +135 | -170 | 1 | Over |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +180 | -220 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | -125 | +105 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +105 | -115 | 1 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +150 | -175 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +179 | -230 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | -150 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| OTT J. Spence | 0.5 | +260 | -280 | 1 | Over |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | -115 | -115 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +105 | -132 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | -150 | +120 | 0 | Under |
| OTT R. Greig | 0.5 | +220 | -300 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +116 | -140 | 1 | Over |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +110 | -125 | 1 | Over |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +110 | -125 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | -165 | +145 | 2 | Over |
3 of 18 overs hit (17%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | PPP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| NJD A. Mantha | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Giroux | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 0.5 | +400 | -800 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Batherson | 0.5 | +250 | -350 | 0 | Under |
| OTT D. Cozens | 0.5 | +310 | -525 | 1 | Over |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 0.5 | +400 | -1100 | 0 | Under |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 0.5 | +475 | -1400 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Bratt | 0.5 | +250 | -280 | 0 | Under |
| NJD J. Hughes | 0.5 | +225 | -240 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 0.5 | +235 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| NJD L. Hughes | 0.5 | +300 | -400 | 0 | Under |
| NJD N. Hischier | 0.5 | +250 | -375 | 0 | Under |
| OTT S. Halliday | 0.5 | +500 | -1600 | 1 | Over |
| OTT S. Pinto | 0.5 | +475 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Chabot | 0.5 | +380 | -450 | 0 | Under |
| NJD T. Meier | 0.5 | +390 | -1000 | 0 | Under |
| OTT T. Stützle | 0.5 | +230 | -350 | 1 | Over |
1 of 2 overs hit (50%).
| Player | Line | Over | Under | SV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT L. Ullmark | 25.5 | -114 | -110 | 29 | Over |
| NJD N. Daws | 23.5 | +100 | -125 | 16 | Under |
2 of 2 overs hit (100%).
Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.0, NJD 3.0 | OTT 4, NJD 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 26.7, NJD 28.6 | OTT 20, NJD 30 |
| Win chance | OTT 50% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.5 | 2 | 1.18 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.5 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 1 | 1.04 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.3 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.1 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 2.1 | 4 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NJD A. Gritsyuk | 1.9 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NJD E. Rodrigues | 1.8 | 4 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NJD A. Mantha | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT C. Yakemchuk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.3 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD B. Pesce | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT S. Halliday | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NJD J. Boqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT A. Burakovsky | 1.0 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD D. Chisholm | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.