Game Recap: OTT 3, NSH 5, January 22, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalThu, Jan 22, 2026Every game that night

NSH5

NSH beat OTT 5-3, with the chances close: 3.64 expected goals to 3.30. S. Stamkos scored three for NSH. J. Marchessault had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Saros stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	2	1	0	3
NSH	0	1	4	5

1st 6:03OTTS. Halliday0.57 xG
1st 14:19OTTR. Greig0.28 xG
2nd 10:46OTTB. Tkachuk0.11 xG
2nd 18:34NSHS. StamkosPP0.15 xG
3rd 8:19NSHJ. Marchessault0.24 xG
3rd 10:07NSHS. StamkosPP0.14 xG
3rd 18:47NSHS. Stamkos0.32 xG
3rd 19:33NSHC. SmithEN0.64 xG

Team Stats

OTTNSH

26Shots on goal27

3.30Expected goals3.64

49Shot attempts55

215v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play2/5

16Hits23

11Blocked shots9

12Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways18

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.30 xGNSH 3.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT26 on goal, 3 scored

NSH27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	17:17	4:05
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	2	4	1	+1	0	16:39	3:53
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:01	0:00
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:01	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	11:04	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	10:00	0:02
S. Halliday	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	9:00	1:56
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	2	20:19	4:03
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	18:08	2:06
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:07	3:46
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:44	1:56
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	4	10:38	1:54
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	25:39	3:47
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	20:26	0:08
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:36	2:16
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	16:38	0:08
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	16:00	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	26	22	4	.846	59:14	Loss
H. Shepard	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	3	3	1	1	0	+1	0	22:42	5:09
S. Stamkos	C	3	0	3	4	3	0	-1	4	18:47	4:51
L. Evangelista	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	13:35	4:43
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:46	5:28
C. Smith	RW	1	0	1	3	6	0	+1	0	16:53	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:50	1:17
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	5	4	0	0	0	15:53	2:17
M. Bunting	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:56	1:42
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	15:08	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	8:57	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:51	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:11	0:41
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	29:06	6:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	18:42	1:07
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	23:45	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:46	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:18	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:54	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio15:00S. Pinto12:34C. Giroux12:18

Line 2D. Batherson12:27T. Stützle13:08F. Zetterlund8:44

Line 3D. Cozens12:22R. Greig12:11B. Tkachuk12:48

Line 4L. Eller8:13N. Cousins10:39S. Halliday6:39

Pair 1N. Jensen15:56T. Chabot16:55

Pair 2J. Sanderson16:07A. Zub15:52

Pair 3J. Spence13:31T. Kleven12:56

NSH

Line 1M. McCarron13:36C. Smith14:15J. Marchessault13:36

Line 2R. O'Reilly12:42F. Forsberg13:45L. Evangelista8:52

Line 3E. Haula11:02M. Bunting11:14S. Stamkos13:56

Line 4F. Svechkov8:51M. Wood7:30

Pair 1R. Josi20:13B. Skjei18:42

Pair 2N. Blankenburg13:34N. Hague10:43

Pair 3N. Perbix16:23J. Barron11:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.3, NSH 3.0	OTT 3, NSH 5
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	OTT 28.6, NSH 26.7	OTT 26, NSH 27
Win chance	OTT 54%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	1	0.78	1	29%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	4	1.01	1	37%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.6	4	0.90	1	21%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	0	0.76	2	21%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	4	0.91	3	36%	3
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	3	0.98	0	28%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	2	0.60	1	20%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.0	1	0.77	0	25%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	3	0.68	1	13%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	1	0.60	0	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.92	3	29%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	1.8	5	0.55	1	25%	1
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	1	0.55	1	21%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.7	1	0.54	0	12%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	3	0.47	1	16%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	0	0.67	0	20%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	1	0.42	0	11%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	1	0.42	1	17%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.6	0	0.36	0	15%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.3	0	0.34	0	15%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	3	0.25	1	11%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.40	1	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.1	0	0.33	0	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.1	0	0.32	1	7%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.0	2	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.28	1	6%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.0	3	0.30	1	6%	1
NSH N. Hague	1.0	1	0.24	0	6%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	0	0.26	1	10%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.9	3	0.22	1	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	1	0.26	0	6%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.24	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.