Game Recap: OTT 2, NYI 0, January 14, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT2

FinalTue, Jan 14, 2025Every game that night

NYI0

OTT beat NYI 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.28 expected goals to 1.23. L. Meriläinen stopped 24 of 24.

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	1	1	2
NYI	0	0	0	0

OTTNYI

27Shots on goal24

3.28Expected goals1.23

56Shot attempts62

225v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play0/1

26Hits22

24Blocked shots15

7Penalty minutes7

11Giveaways11

9Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

OTT 3.28 xGNYI 1.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

OTT27 on goal, 2 scored

NYI24 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	18:52	0:56
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	0	18:39	1:00
J. Norris	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	18:32	1:04
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:49	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	20:42	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	+1	0	18:40	2:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:31	1:00
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:11	2:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	16:55	0:00
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	11:11	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:48	0:00
Z. MacEwen	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	5	5:57	0:00
A. Zub	D	1	0	1	1	2	7	+2	0	24:23	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+1	0	22:42	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	1	4	+1	0	31:46	2:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	21:40	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:38	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	-2	0	23:16	1:17
M. Barzal	C	2	0	3	-1	0	22:44	1:45
B. Nelson	C	3	1	0	-1	0	22:15	1:28
A. Lee	LW	1	3	0	-1	0	18:55	1:18
K. Palmieri	C	0	3	2	-2	0	17:27	0:41
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	0	-1	0	17:12	0:42
A. Duclair	LW	2	0	0	0	0	14:26	0:32
C. Cizikas	C	2	2	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	1	0	0	0	8:21	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	4	1	0	0	7:27	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	5	2	0	5	6:04	0:00
N. Dobson	D	4	0	0	-2	2	27:13	1:19
A. Pelech	D	3	0	3	0	0	24:44	0:00
R. Pulock	D	3	0	2	0	0	21:13	0:15
S. Mayfield	D	2	1	0	-1	0	19:18	0:00
I. George	D	1	0	0	0	0	14:20	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	1	0	1	0	0	10:15	0:43

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	26	25	1	.962	58:37	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	2	0.81	0	30%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.7	0	0.75	0	32%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	2	0.91	0	25%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.7	1	0.68	0	30%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.5	3	0.81	0	34%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	4	0.67	0	13%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	2	0.51	1	22%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	0	0.51	0	10%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.1	0	0.64	0	27%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	4	0.73	1	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	3	0.50	0	7%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	2	0.58	1	29%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	2	0.80	0	24%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	1	0.67	0	22%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	2	0.58	0	25%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	2	0.41	0	18%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	0	0.32	0	12%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	3	0.34	0	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	3	0.36	0	7%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	0	0.43	0	17%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.30	1	15%	1
OTT A. Zub	1.2	1	0.26	1	5%	1
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	3	0.29	0	4%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	2	0.25	0	11%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	0	0.12	1	3%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.9	1	0.30	0	7%	0
OTT M. Highmore	0.9	3	0.21	0	9%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	2	0.20	0	5%	0
OTT Z. MacEwen	0.8	1	0.11	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	0	0.09	0	3%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0
NYI I. George	0.6	1	0.18	0	4%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.