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Game Recap
OTT3
NYI0
OTT beat NYI 3-0, with the chances close: 2.39 expected goals to 2.89. M. Amadio led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Cizikas had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. L. Ullmark stopped 23 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 13:06OTTR. GreigSH0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:36OTTJ. SandersonPP0.31 xG
- 3rd 17:29OTTM. AmadioEN0.76 xG
Team Stats
OTTNYI
16Shots on goal23
2.39Expected goals2.89
39Shot attempts54
75v5 shots on goal16
1/5Power play0/5
27Hits26
15Blocked shots12
15Penalty minutes15
12Giveaways10
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.39 xGNYI 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Greig | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:36 | 2:11 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:52 | 0:21 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:00 | 6:21 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 2:08 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:23 | 5:51 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 17:44 | 6:21 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 4:00 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:08 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10:25 | 1:22 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 2:28 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:32 | 2:21 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 27:38 | 6:03 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:06 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:11 | 2:34 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | 0:35 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Thomson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 23 | 23 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 6:41 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:49 | 7:09 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 2:47 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:41 | 3:42 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 6:10 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 5:58 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:09 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 12:29 | 3:10 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 12:15 | 2:52 |
| O. Palat | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:40 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:19 | 0:08 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:02 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:56 | 7:10 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 19:40 | 2:55 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:27 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 56:57 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 1S. Pinto11:18M. Amadio12:28N. Cousins10:47
Line 2D. Batherson10:37T. Stützle9:35C. Giroux8:10
Line 3R. Greig12:17D. Cozens10:02B. Tkachuk8:47
Line 4L. Eller5:58W. Foegele7:41F. Zetterlund7:11
Pair 2A. Zub14:33J. Sanderson12:47
Pair 3L. Thomson6:57N. Matinpalo8:40
NYI
Line 1B. Schenn9:41M. Barzal12:45C. Ritchie10:44
Line 2B. Horvat9:33S. Holmstrom10:21A. Lee7:15
Line 3C. Cizikas9:34M. Gatcomb8:17K. MacLean8:11
Line 4O. Palat9:16J. Pageau10:18E. Heineman8:24
Pair 1T. DeAngelo15:56A. Pelech13:21
Pair 2S. Mayfield10:53C. Soucy11:29
Pair 3R. Pulock11:58M. Schaefer13:59
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.2, NYI 2.9 | OTT 3, NYI 0 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 28.5, NYI 26.0 | OTT 16, NYI 23 |
| Win chance | OTT 53% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.4 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.6 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.2 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.9 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.9 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.8 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.7 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| NYI B. Schenn | 1.5 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.1 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 6 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT L. Thomson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYI O. Palat | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI C. Soucy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.