NYR beat OTT 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.86 expected goals to 3.35. OTT outshot NYR 41 to 18. A. Lafrenière led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Jensen had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. I. Shesterkin stopped 40 of 41.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NYR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 3:03NYRA. Panarin0.05 xG
- 3rd 2:56NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.20 xG
- 3rd 12:28OTTA. Gaudette0.20 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.35 xGNYR 1.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 5:33 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:37 | 3:05 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 | 5:25 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:45 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 4:32 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:33 | 5:09 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 3:13 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:42 | 3:15 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:19 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0:24 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. MacEwen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:49 | 3:42 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:48 | 5:16 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:08 | 0:44 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:18 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 58:33 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:27 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 2:16 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:27 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:27 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 | 2:16 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:22 | 2:16 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:16 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:27 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:47 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 21:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 18:53 | 1:56 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 17:51 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 41 | 40 | 1 | .976 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.0, NYR 3.6 | OTT 1, NYR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 31.7, NYR 30.4 | OTT 41, NYR 18 |
| Win chance | NYR 60% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.3 | 3 | 1.39 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.8 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.6 | 1 | 0.80 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.4 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.2 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.1 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 2.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.7 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 0 | 1.02 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.4 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.9 | 6 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT Z. MacEwen | 0.9 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.