Game Recap: OTT 0, NYR 5, January 21, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT0

FinalTue, Jan 21, 2025Every game that night

NYR5

NYR beat OTT 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.67 expected goals to 0.85. NYR outshot OTT 29 to 20. A. Lafrenière led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rempe had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.5. I. Shesterkin stopped 20 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	0	0	0
NYR	1	1	3	5

1st 18:48NYRA. Lafrenière0.29 xG
2nd 1:50NYRA. Kaliyev0.03 xG
3rd 3:34NYRM. Rempe0.10 xG
3rd 9:01NYRA. PanarinPP0.14 xG
3rd 9:57NYRW. CuyllePP0.18 xG

Team Stats

OTTNYR

20Shots on goal29

0.85Expected goals2.67

53Shot attempts53

205v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play2/4

23Hits19

13Blocked shots17

14Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways18

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 0.85 xGNYR 2.67 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT20 on goal, 0 scored

NYR29 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	2	1	0	0	2	19:35	1:39
T. Stützle	C	0	1	0	-1	2	19:19	2:22
R. Greig	C	1	1	0	-1	0	17:56	1:58
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	-1	0	17:11	1:57
B. Tkachuk	LW	4	5	0	0	6	16:44	1:58
M. Amadio	RW	0	3	1	0	2	15:21	1:57
C. Giroux	RW	1	0	0	-2	0	15:07	1:56
M. Highmore	C	4	1	2	-1	0	13:13	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	3	0	-1	0	13:08	0:01
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	5	0	-1	0	12:35	0:05
A. Gaudette	RW	1	1	0	0	0	12:29	1:58
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	-1	0	3:47	0:00
T. Chabot	D	2	0	3	0	0	25:32	1:56
A. Zub	D	1	0	3	-1	0	22:10	0:09
J. Sanderson	D	1	1	2	-1	0	20:41	2:04
N. Jensen	D	0	0	1	0	0	19:08	0:00
T. Kleven	D	1	1	0	-2	0	14:42	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	2	0	1	-2	2	14:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	16	14	2	.875	24:59	Loss
A. Forsberg	13	10	3	.769	35:01

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	15:59	2:19
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	18:23	3:52
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	18:04	3:41
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	17:17	3:52
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	3	5	2	0	0	17:00	2:16
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:58	0:42
A. Edstrom	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	11:43	0:37
A. Kaliyev	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	11:16	0:00
M. Rempe	C	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	4	9:12	0:40
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	18:29	2:17
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:06	3:51
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:25	2:19
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	+2	0	20:29	3:52
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	23:04	2:14
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	18:29	0:40
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:29	0:42
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	18:03	0:06
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	17:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	20	20	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, NYR 3.1	OTT 0, NYR 5
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	OTT 30.4, NYR 29.0	OTT 20, NYR 29
Win chance	NYR 56%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.0	4	0.83	0	31%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	5	1.14	1	34%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.4	1	0.69	0	36%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	4	0.80	1	28%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	1	0.65	2	27%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	2	0.52	0	21%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	0	0.77	0	25%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.2	2	0.79	1	27%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	0	0.82	0	25%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.1	0	0.61	0	29%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.0	1	0.48	0	20%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	1	0.46	0	6%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	1	0.67	0	22%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	2	0.44	0	8%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	3	0.44	1	21%	1
NYR R. Smith	1.8	1	0.55	0	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.40	0	17%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	1	0.82	2	12%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.6	2	0.29	1	14%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.6	0	0.30	0	12%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	0	0.33	1	8%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	3	0.24	1	6%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.28	0	14%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	0	0.29	1	13%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.0	4	0.23	0	9%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.12	0	3%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.07	0	2%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.21	1	12%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	0	0.16	1	2%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.11	0	5%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	4	0.12	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.