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Game Recap
OTT2
NYR1
OTT beat NYR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.65 expected goals to 1.42. OTT outshot NYR 33 to 10. T. Kleven had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Reimer stopped 9 of 10.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| NYR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 1st 6:30OTTS. PintoPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 6:46OTTW. Foegele0.21 xG
- 3rd 7:03NYRC. Sheary0.23 xG
Team Stats
OTTNYR
33Shots on goal10
2.65Expected goals1.42
50Shot attempts37
215v5 shots on goal7
1/7Power play0/3
20Hits39
12Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes16
16Giveaways17
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.65 xGNYR 1.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 4:27 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 5:23 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:17 | 3:51 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 8:40 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 8:55 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 8:33 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:10 | 8:09 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:30 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:22 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:07 | 3:31 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:53 | 0:17 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 26:44 | 8:26 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:30 | 2:12 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:44 | 1:02 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 2:52 |
| L. Thomson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 10 | 9 | 1 | .900 | 59:50 | Win |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:43 | 1:23 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22:56 | 4:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 4:39 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 18:24 | 4:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 1:15 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 4:42 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 2:04 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:46 | 1:57 |
| J. Chmelar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 4:35 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 1:25 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Mackey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 58:09 | Loss |
| D. Garand | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 1D. Batherson9:50T. Stützle11:15C. Giroux9:11
Line 2R. Greig11:37B. Tkachuk9:44D. Cozens9:01
Line 3N. Cousins9:26M. Amadio10:24S. Pinto8:59
Line 4L. Eller8:48W. Foegele8:26F. Zetterlund8:35
Pair 2N. Matinpalo14:52J. Spence16:50
NYR
Line 1A. Lafrenière11:33G. Perreault12:29M. Zibanejad10:07
Line 3V. Trocheck10:50W. Cuylle11:27T. Raddysh7:30
Line 4J. Parssinen6:23A. Edstrom5:06J. Chmelar8:23
Pair 1V. Gavrikov14:08A. Fox13:23
Pair 2B. Schneider14:00M. Robertson13:19
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.4, NYR 2.5 | OTT 2, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 31.1, NYR 21.5 | OTT 33, NYR 10 |
| Win chance | OTT 63% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.7 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.5 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.3 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.3 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.0 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.9 | 0 | 0.93 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 1.9 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.6 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.6 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.4 | 6 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.3 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| OTT L. Eller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT L. Thomson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR C. Mackey | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.8 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR J. Chmelar | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.