Game Recap: OTT 3, PHI 2 (OT), November 8, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT3

Final/OTSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night

PHI2

OTT beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.50. PHI outshot OTT 22 to 14. T. Stützle led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Ullmark stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	2	0	0	1	3
PHI	0	1	1	0	2

1st 5:14OTTT. Stützle0.15 xG
1st 6:19OTTM. Amadio0.07 xG
2nd 11:23PHIM. Michkov0.18 xG
3rd 9:55PHIJ. Drysdale0.18 xG
OT 3:19OTTT. Stützle0.23 xG

Team Stats

OTTPHI

14Shots on goal22

2.63Expected goals2.50

39Shot attempts56

105v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/2

18Hits26

17Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways13

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.63 xGPHI 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT14 on goal, 3 scored

PHI22 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	2	0	2	2	1	2	+2	0	18:26	1:56
S. Pinto	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	19:11	1:57
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:20	2:05
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:41	1:53
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	15:44	1:55
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	13:59	0:00
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:54	2:02
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	20:02	1:54
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	14:55	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:41	2:04
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	10:25	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:41	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	0	1	5	+2	0	23:02	2:24
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	0	24:00	1:34
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:56	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	18:23	0:04
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:18	0:01
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	17:19	0:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	22	20	2	.909	63:19	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+1	0	16:51	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	23:05	3:02
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	2	20:22	0:58
M. Michkov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	2	14:10	0:59
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:54	2:52
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:51	2:50
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:39	0:56
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:37	2:57
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:17	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	9:15	0:02
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:38	0:07
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:27	0:05
J. Drysdale	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	24:35	3:02
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	26:00	1:03
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:38	0:57
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	19:02	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	3	6	0	+1	2	14:26	0:02
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:10	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	14	11	3	.786	63:19	OT loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Cozens15:26F. Zetterlund13:28D. Batherson13:07

Line 2C. Giroux12:48S. Pinto12:28M. Amadio13:10

Line 3D. Perron10:52T. Stützle11:44R. Greig12:15

Line 4N. Cousins10:17O. Lycksell9:41L. Eller8:17

Pair 1N. Jensen16:23T. Chabot16:13

Pair 2A. Zub15:54J. Sanderson16:11

Pair 3T. Kleven16:09J. Spence15:37

PHI

Line 1T. Zegras16:48C. Dvorak14:11O. Tippett12:45

Line 2T. Konecny15:36N. Cates12:36C. Grundstrom10:00

Line 3S. Couturier12:07B. Brink13:40M. Michkov11:12

Line 4G. Hathaway7:53R. Abols8:31N. Grebenkin8:22

Pair 1T. Sanheim18:30C. York18:10

Pair 2N. Seeler15:40J. Drysdale18:07

Pair 3N. Juulsen12:50E. Andrae13:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Ersson OTT Faces PHI, his team until May 202611 saves on 14

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, PHI 2.9	OTT 3, PHI 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	OTT 25.7, PHI 26.3	OTT 14, PHI 22
Win chance	OTT 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.9	2	0.65	0	28%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	2	0.88	1	30%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	2	0.69	1	23%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	0	0.68	1	28%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	0	0.64	0	11%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.1	0	0.65	0	19%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	3	0.62	0	22%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	2	0.91	2	27%	2
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.79	1	26%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	0	0.77	1	24%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.8	0	0.60	1	12%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.8	0	0.24	0	14%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.7	2	0.57	0	20%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	1	0.55	2	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	1	0.46	1	18%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.6	2	0.34	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	0	0.41	0	9%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.5	3	0.57	0	19%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	1	0.54	1	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	0	0.62	1	20%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.25	0	4%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	1	0.41	1	20%	1
PHI R. Abols	1.2	1	0.20	0	10%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	0	0.33	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	2	0.40	1	9%	1
PHI C. York	1.1	0	0.41	0	8%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.32	0	6%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.0	0	0.35	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT O. Lycksell	0.9	0	0.25	0	8%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.8	2	0.10	0	2%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	3	0.08	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.5	2	0.22	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.