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Game Recap
OTT5
PIT0
OTT beat PIT 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.73 expected goals to 1.68. C. Giroux led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Meriläinen stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 3:16OTTT. Kleven0.04 xG
- 1st 5:14OTTS. PintoPP0.12 xG
- 1st 19:04OTTS. PintoSH0.13 xG
- 2nd 0:41OTTD. BathersonPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:06OTTT. Stützle0.46 xG
Team Stats
OTTPIT
22Shots on goal29
2.73Expected goals1.68
44Shot attempts62
125v5 shots on goal22
2/4Power play0/6
27Hits30
15Blocked shots11
20Penalty minutes12
10Giveaways11
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.73 xGPIT 1.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:56 |
| S. Pinto | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 2:03 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 1:49 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:29 | 3:06 |
| T. Stützle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:27 | 3:15 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 3:01 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:39 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 3:17 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 | 3:12 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:54 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:08 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Meriläinen | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:25 | 6:16 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 5:57 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:07 | 5:30 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:49 | 4:24 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6 | 15:35 | 5:12 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 3:26 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 3:48 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:31 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:58 | 0:30 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:29 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:41 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:45 | 5:58 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 4:13 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:14 | 4:26 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:39 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:23 | 0:04 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 17 | 12 | 5 | .706 | 27:00 | Loss |
| T. Jarry | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1.000 | 32:54 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.2, PIT 3.2 | OTT 5, PIT 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 30.9, PIT 28.6 | OTT 22, PIT 29 |
| Win chance | PIT 50% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 2 | 0.93 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 2 | 1.19 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.9 | 1 | 0.92 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.5 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.3 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.1 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 1 | 0.94 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 2.0 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 1 | 0.72 | 3 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.5 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.