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Game Recap
OTT3
TBL4
TBL beat OTT 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.60 expected goals to 3.03. TBL outshot OTT 38 to 28. V. Hedman led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Guentzel had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 25 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| TBL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 14:09OTTM. AmadioPP0.50 xG
- 2nd 1:44TBLL. Glendening0.04 xG
- 2nd 7:38TBLN. KucherovPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 9:30OTTC. Giroux0.08 xG
- 3rd 1:56TBLB. Hagel0.06 xG
- 3rd 18:25TBLR. McDonaghEN0.77 xG
- 3rd 18:40OTTD. Batherson0.09 xG
Team Stats
OTTTBL
28Shots on goal38
3.03Expected goals4.60
48Shot attempts77
225v5 shots on goal31
1/2Power play1/4
13Hits17
16Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways4
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 3.03 xGTBL 4.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:12 | 3:10 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:00 | 3:08 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:00 | 2:32 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:22 | 1:24 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:22 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:17 | 1:03 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:56 | 3:12 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:25 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:55 | 1:07 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:35 | 2:27 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 57:59 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:00 | 3:09 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:13 | 4:49 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:25 | 3:09 |
| L. Glendening | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:58 | 4:10 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 4:41 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:47 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 4:03 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:50 | 2:30 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | 0:25 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:48 | 4:39 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 21:05 | 0:26 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:42 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:39 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 25 | 3 | .893 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.6, TBL 3.3 | OTT 3, TBL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 28.1, TBL 29.5 | OTT 28, TBL 38 |
| Win chance | TBL 62% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.7 | 3 | 1.71 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 6 | 1.01 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 2 | 1.10 | 0 | 43% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 4 | 0.92 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 4 | 0.84 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 3 | 0.45 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 2.0 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.