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Game Recap
OTT1
TBL5
TBL beat OTT 5-1, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 2.19. B. Point led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Chabot had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 28.
Team Stats
OTTTBL
28Shots on goal31
2.19Expected goals2.90
66Shot attempts66
255v5 shots on goal25
0/3Power play1/3
24Hits16
18Blocked shots18
6Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways11
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.19 xGTBL 2.90 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:49 | 4:57 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:00 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:26 | 4:44 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:20 | 4:56 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:27 | 4:52 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:32 | 1:06 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:19 | 1:04 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 1:15 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:32 | 1:17 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 26:15 | 4:43 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:12 | 0:01 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:05 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 5:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 57:23 | Loss |
| L. Ullmark | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Point | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:42 | 3:48 |
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:05 | 5:55 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 2:03 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:54 | 4:43 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 2:07 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:41 | 1:12 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:25 | 3:52 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 22:24 | 2:08 |
| E. Cernak | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:02 | 3:47 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 59:49 | Win |
| B. Halverson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.7, TBL 3.3 | OTT 1, TBL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 28.7, TBL 29.7 | OTT 28, TBL 31 |
| Win chance | TBL 59% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 5 | 0.79 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.6 | 4 | 1.63 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.9 | 1 | 0.98 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.7 | 5 | 1.07 | 3 | 42% | 1 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.7 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.3 | 0 | 0.83 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.2 | 0 | 0.89 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.1 | 7 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 2.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| TBL M. Eyssimont | 1.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Sheary | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.0 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 1.0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT C. Reinhardt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.