Game Recap: OTT 5, VAN 4 (OT), December 21, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT5

Final/OTSat, Dec 21, 2024Every game that night

VAN4

OTT beat VAN 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.43. S. Pinto led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). Q. Hughes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. L. Meriläinen stopped 21 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	2	2	0	1	5
VAN	2	1	1	0	4

1st 1:45OTTC. Giroux0.05 xG
1st 16:22OTTS. Pinto0.29 xG
1st 18:04VANB. Boeser0.26 xG
1st 19:42VANQ. Hughes0.01 xG
2nd 4:24OTTS. Pinto0.24 xG
2nd 13:36VANJ. DeBrusk0.08 xG
2nd 15:30OTTJ. NorrisSH0.19 xG
3rd 15:10VANB. Boeser0.04 xG
OT 0:15OTTJ. Sanderson0.12 xG

Team Stats

OTTVAN

22Shots on goal25

3.07Expected goals2.43

53Shot attempts57

135v5 shots on goal22

0/4Power play0/2

13Hits28

16Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways9

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.07 xGVAN 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT22 on goal, 5 scored

VAN25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Pinto	C	2	1	3	3	1	0	+1	0	18:17	1:59
C. Giroux	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	2	18:18	1:55
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:13	5:25
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	18:55	5:00
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:05	4:49
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:44	0:07
M. Amadio	RW	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	10:56	0:07
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	19:22	5:17
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:55	1:30
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:52	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:19	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:04	1:35
J. Sanderson	D	1	2	3	3	1	3	+1	0	23:10	4:38
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	23:47	2:24
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:28	0:24
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:48	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	13:51	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	25	21	4	.840	60:15	Win
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Boeser	RW	2	0	2	3	0	1	-1	0	14:51	2:18
P. Di Giuseppe	LW	0	2	2	1	3	1	+1	2	12:36	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:53	1:54
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	17:30	2:00
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	17:03	2:06
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-2	0	15:15	2:23
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:00	1:57
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:56	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	14:04	1:42
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	13:35	1:37
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:23	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	2	3	5	0	0	+1	0	26:20	3:53
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	2	21:12	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:24	0:07
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	0	17:18	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:40	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	4	15:31	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	22	17	5	.773	60:15	OT loss
T. Demko	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamLeevi Meriläinen VAN First game against OTT since he left (his team until Jan 2026)21 saves on 25, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, VAN 3.2	OTT 5, VAN 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	OTT 28.9, VAN 26.4	OTT 22, VAN 25
Win chance	VAN 54%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	0	0.84	0	30%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.6	1	0.80	1	27%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.4	5	1.10	3	14%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	4	0.80	1	25%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	1	0.64	1	29%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	3	0.78	2	30%	2
OTT J. Norris	2.0	1	0.63	1	29%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.0	1	0.48	1	12%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	2	0.89	0	30%	0
OTT T. Stützle	1.9	2	0.87	1	24%	0
VAN J. Miller	1.9	0	0.96	1	29%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	3	0.42	3	18%	2
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	3	0.51	0	22%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	3	0.43	3	8%	1
VAN P. Suter	1.6	2	0.45	1	21%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	4	0.62	2	21%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.4	1	0.30	1	11%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	0	0.18	0	6%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.3	1	0.21	0	10%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	0	0.37	1	17%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.2	0	0.44	0	18%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.2	0	0.31	0	13%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	1	0.39	0	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	1	0.32	1	4%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	0	0.29	0	6%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.1	2	0.26	0	8%	0
VAN P. Giuseppe	1.0	1	0.23	2	12%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	0	0.10	0	3%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.8	0	0.36	0	17%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	0.8	1	0.17	0	10%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.6	2	0.18	0	5%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	0	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.4	1	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.