WSH beat OTT 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.52 expected goals to 4.69. P. Dubois led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). T. Stützle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. L. Thompson stopped 33 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| WSH | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 1:41WSHC. McMichael0.53 xG
- 1st 3:34WSHP. Dubois0.18 xG
- 2nd 6:53WSHT. WilsonPP0.18 xG
- 2nd 12:18OTTS. Pinto0.08 xG
- 3rd 1:05OTTC. GirouxPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 8:01OTTS. Pinto0.09 xG
- 3rd 12:43WSHM. Fehérváry0.10 xG
- 3rd 18:52OTTB. TkachukPP0.59 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 4.69 xGWSH 4.52 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:11 | 7:51 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 6:48 |
| S. Pinto | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:45 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 23:12 | 5:53 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:13 | 7:02 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 3:16 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:13 | 3:25 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 2:26 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:53 | 1:21 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 31:49 | 7:56 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:30 | 2:54 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:15 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:26 | 0:22 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 41 | 37 | 4 | .902 | 63:40 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Dubois | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 19:42 | 4:40 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 20:14 | 4:40 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:54 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:36 | 4:41 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:50 | 5:34 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:53 |
| E. Frank | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:54 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:05 | 4:50 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:44 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 37 | 33 | 4 | .892 | 64:50 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.6, WSH 3.2 | OTT 4, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 27.0, WSH 27.7 | OTT 37, WSH 41 |
| Win chance | WSH 59% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.9 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.6 | 5 | 0.95 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.47 | 3 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.1 | 6 | 0.88 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.9 | 5 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 5 | 0.75 | 3 | 26% | 1 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.9 | 5 | 0.66 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 3 | 0.42 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 5 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH E. Frank | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.