Game Recap: PHI 3, ANA 2 (OT), March 18, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/OTWed, Mar 18, 2026Every game that night

ANA2

PHI beat ANA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.56 expected goals to 3.10. ANA outshot PHI 36 to 28. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Terry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Vladar stopped 34 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	1	1	0	1	3
ANA	0	1	1	0	2

1st 2:51PHIL. Glendening0.20 xG
2nd 7:53PHIO. Tippett0.07 xG
2nd 19:22ANAC. GauthierPP0.25 xG
3rd 18:06ANAL. Carlsson0.10 xG
OT 2:17PHIN. Cates0.09 xG

Team Stats

PHIANA

28Shots on goal36

4.56Expected goals3.10

63Shot attempts72

155v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play1/4

19Hits20

20Blocked shots11

15Penalty minutes15

20Giveaways12

7Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 4.56 xGANA 3.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI28 on goal, 3 scored

ANA36 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:25	2:24
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	5	3	1	0	0	16:24	3:19
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	4	14:17	2:39
L. Glendening	C	1	0	1	4	3	0	+1	0	14:00	0:14
G. Hathaway	RW	0	1	1	1	6	1	+1	0	11:56	0:14
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	20:55	3:57
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	19:40	3:48
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	18:27	3:44
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:23	0:17
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:20	2:38
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:41	3:04
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	8:47	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	0	24:30	0:40
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	2	21:34	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	21:22	3:50
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:45	2:23
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	5	17:27	0:13
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	36	34	2	.944	62:08	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	7	0	1	0	2	18:35	3:27
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	0	19:07	2:40
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	18:22	2:32
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:01	3:30
B. Sennecke	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:00	3:21
R. Poehling	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:38	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:58	2:15
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	16:00	2:46
J. Viel	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	2	13:55	0:01
T. Washe	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	2	7:10	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	5:48	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	5	4:06	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	2	19:44	0:01
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	25:29	3:55
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	25:22	3:14
J. Carlson	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	2	22:44	2:06
I. Moore	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:54	0:13
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	12:31	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	28	25	3	.893	61:44	OT loss
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier12:18L. Glendening11:06G. Hathaway10:24

Line 2C. Dvorak11:58T. Konecny13:53A. Bump10:00

Line 3T. Zegras12:18N. Grebenkin8:47O. Tippett10:45

Line 4M. Michkov10:49N. Cates9:18D. Barkey8:37

Pair 1C. York17:08J. Drysdale15:42

Pair 2R. Ristolainen13:26T. Sanheim16:10

Pair 3N. Seeler14:10E. Andrae10:51

ANA

Line 1T. Terry13:48L. Carlsson13:18C. Kreider12:21

Line 2J. Viel13:54R. Poehling12:36C. Gauthier12:53

Line 3A. Killorn11:45B. Sennecke14:19M. Granlund11:39

Line 4F. Vatrano4:39T. Washe5:32J. Harkins4:06

Pair 1J. LaCombe17:58J. Trouba15:39

Pair 2P. Mintyukov15:01I. Moore12:17

Pair 3J. Carlson16:43O. Zellweger9:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan Poehling ANA Faces PHI, his team until Apr 20251 SOG
Old teamTrevor Zegras PHI Faces ANA, his team until Apr 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, ANA 3.3	PHI 3, ANA 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	PHI 25.3, ANA 28.0	PHI 28, ANA 36
Win chance	ANA 57%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA C. Gauthier	3.2	7	0.88	2	34%	1
PHI O. Tippett	3.0	5	0.73	1	30%	1
ANA B. Sennecke	2.5	1	0.86	0	27%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.5	2	1.04	0	32%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.2	1	0.82	0	27%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	2	0.65	1	24%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.1	3	0.85	1	28%	1
ANA J. Trouba	2.1	2	0.44	0	10%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.9	3	0.66	0	21%	0
ANA C. Kreider	1.9	0	0.77	0	35%	0
ANA T. Terry	1.9	6	0.76	1	24%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	2	0.52	0	23%	0
ANA M. Granlund	1.8	0	0.75	0	21%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.8	0	0.31	0	6%	0
ANA J. Carlson	1.7	3	0.62	0	12%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	3	0.64	0	12%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.6	1	0.51	0	19%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.6	0	0.50	0	12%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	3	0.45	0	14%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.5	1	0.27	0	8%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	1.5	0	0.33	0	17%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	0	0.40	1	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.3	2	0.46	1	16%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	2	0.44	1	10%	0
ANA R. Poehling	1.3	1	0.53	0	18%	0
ANA J. Viel	1.2	2	0.22	0	10%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.1	2	0.36	1	10%	0
ANA T. Washe	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
ANA I. Moore	1.0	2	0.25	0	7%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	1	0.33	0	11%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	1	0.16	0	7%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.29	0	10%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.7	4	0.12	1	7%	1
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	1	0.18	1	9%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.