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Game Recap
PHI2
BOS0
PHI beat BOS 2-0, with the chances close: 2.51 expected goals to 2.45. E. Lindholm had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Ersson stopped 25 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 5:32PHIT. Foerster0.11 xG
- 3rd 19:36PHIJ. FarabeeEN0.39 xG
Team Stats
PHIBOS
19Shots on goal25
2.51Expected goals2.45
46Shot attempts73
165v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play0/4
28Hits23
28Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways15
8Takeaways11
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.51 xGBOS 2.45 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:13 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:49 | 2:31 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:30 | 1:46 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 1:28 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 2:12 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:57 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:48 | 1:44 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:06 | 2:05 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:20 | 2:14 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 23:40 | 0:03 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 1:47 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 25 | 25 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 4:39 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 4:28 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 4:21 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 4:06 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:49 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:04 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:14 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:12 | 1:56 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:33 | 0:14 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:23 | 4:28 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:52 | 1:56 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 1:45 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 58:24 | Loss |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.7, BOS 3.2 | PHI 2, BOS 0 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 30.6, BOS 26.0 | PHI 19, BOS 25 |
| Win chance | BOS 59% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 3 | 1.32 | 0 | 46% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 3.3 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 3.0 | 0 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.2 | 3 | 0.95 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 5 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.9 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.8 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI E. Johnson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.