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Game Recap
PHI1
FinalSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night
BOS5

BOS beat PHI 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.44 expected goals to 1.18. BOS outshot PHI 32 to 15. F. Minten led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. Zadorov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Swayman stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PHI0011
BOS1135
  1. 1st 12:21BOSP. Zacha0.07 xG
  2. 2nd 17:12BOSM. Lohrei0.10 xG
  3. 3rd 1:55BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.17 xG
  4. 3rd 6:32PHIP. MartonePP0.09 xG
  5. 3rd 9:21BOSC. Mittelstadt0.25 xG
  6. 3rd 15:59BOSF. Minten0.06 xG

Team Stats

PHIBOS
15Shots on goal32
1.18Expected goals3.44
37Shot attempts64
125v5 shots on goal31
1/3Power play0/2
21Hits25
18Blocked shots9
16Penalty minutes18
21Giveaways13
4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 1.18 xGBOS 3.44 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdBOS goal, 12:21BOS goal, 17:12BOS goal, 1:55PHI goal, 6:32BOS goal, 9:21BOS goal, 15:59

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI15 on goal, 1 scored
BOS32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. MartoneRW10132001215:181:24
D. BarkeyC011110-1013:511:22
C. DvorakC000011-1017:251:09
O. TippettRW000320-1017:180:49
T. FoersterRW000110-2216:151:27
S. CouturierC000020-1016:090:17
T. ZegrasC000010-1015:531:11
M. MichkovRW000202-2015:351:07
M. BuntingLW000000-2013:361:06
N. AcciariC000031-1212:440:00
G. WilsonLW000050-2011:460:00
N. CatesLW000100-1010:570:00
D.JiricekD011104-3017:461:11
T. SanheimD000012-2028:510:20
J. DrysdaleD000202-1024:581:22
N. SeelerD0001240020:190:00
S. BenoitD000001-3013:370:00
H. GransD000001-1012:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar32275.84460:00Loss
J. Woll000–0:00

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. MintenC123300+31214:250:45
J. PeterkaRW022220+3014:020:45
D. PastrnakRW011400+1019:291:32
P. ZachaC101100+1219:161:31
J. HagensC011411+1014:480:46
C. MittelstadtC101200+2014:250:43
E. LindholmC011101+1013:471:15
M. KhusnutdinovC101311+3013:270:00
M. GeekieC0001210016:401:31
T. JeannotLW0000400012:490:00
M. PoitrasC0001100012:140:00
M. KastelicC0002210011:240:00
H. LindholmD011000+3018:280:34
W. BorgenD011030+3218:130:00
M. LohreiD101111+2017:410:17
C. CliftonD0001410222:480:03
N. ZadorovD0004320022:370:00
F. BrunetD000210+2018:251:43
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman15141.93359:30Win
M. DiPietro000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier14:07M. Michkov14:28O. Tippett14:08
Line 2T. Foerster13:49C. Dvorak13:33T. Zegras14:42
Line 3G. Wilson11:16N. Acciari12:14M. Bunting12:00
Line 4P. Martone13:54N. Cates9:55D. Barkey10:47
Pair 1T. Sanheim23:28J. Drysdale19:36
Pair 2N. Seeler18:33D.Jiricek16:35
Pair 3S. Benoit12:54H. Grans12:26

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:32P. Zacha16:20M. Geekie14:39
Line 2C. Mittelstadt12:48J. Hagens13:02E. Lindholm11:22
Line 3T. Jeannot11:40M. Poitras12:14M. Kastelic10:30
Line 4M. Khusnutdinov11:32F. Minten11:48J. Peterka12:29
Pair 1C. Clifton20:15N. Zadorov18:52
Pair 2H. Lindholm17:04W. Borgen16:47
Pair 3M. Lohrei15:31F. Brunet15:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5-113-1054Over
BOS M. Geekie2.5+144-1551Under
PHI O. Tippett2.5+105-1303Over
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+120-1550Under
PHI D.Jiricek1.5+104–1Under
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-120+1001Under
BOS H. Lindholm1.5+105-1550Under
PHI J. Drysdale1.5-110-1352Over
BOS J. Hagens1.5+100-1254Over
BOS J. Peterka1.5-160+1252Over
BOS M. Kastelic1.5+120-1752Over
PHI M. Michkov1.5-138-1052Over
PHI P. Martone1.5-125-1153Over
BOS P. Zacha1.5-145+1301Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-125+1151Under
PHI T. Zegras1.5-110+1100Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.6, BOS 3.2PHI 1, BOS 5
Total goals5.86
Shots on goalPHI 25.8, BOS 27.2PHI 15, BOS 32
Win chanceBOS 60%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.241.22138%0
PHI O. Tippett2.630.53024%0
PHI M. Michkov2.220.62022%0
PHI T. Foerster2.110.51025%0
BOS M. Geekie2.110.77031%0
PHI T. Zegras1.900.68022%0
PHI P. Martone1.930.43115%1
PHI S. Couturier1.800.43014%0
BOS J. Peterka1.820.56224%0
BOS P. Zacha1.710.70123%1
PHI C. Dvorak1.700.47016%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.510.56120%0
BOS F. Minten1.530.39317%1
PHI J. Drysdale1.420.37010%0
PHI M. Bunting1.400.32014%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.400.38011%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.300.4018%0
PHI N. Acciari1.300.25012%0
BOS J. Hagens1.340.42116%0
PHI N. Cates1.310.37013%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.340.2807%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.120.48116%1
BOS M. Kastelic1.120.27012%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.010.3718%1
PHI D. Barkey1.010.33112%0
BOS M. Poitras1.010.37011%0
PHI N. Seeler1.010.1604%0
PHI D.Jiricek1.010.1914%0
BOS W. Borgen0.900.2316%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.900.23011%0
BOS C. Clifton0.910.2105%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.930.33114%1
PHI H. Grans0.900.1704%0
PHI S. Benoit0.800.0902%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.