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Game Recap
PHI4
BUF5
BUF beat PHI 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.17 expected goals to 2.29. M. Michkov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Krebs had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Reimer stopped 20 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| BUF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 4:35BUFA. Tuch0.09 xG
- 1st 13:49BUFP. KrebsSH0.19 xG
- 1st 15:09PHIM. MichkovPP0.11 xG
- 1st 16:11BUFJ. Quinn0.19 xG
- 2nd 1:24BUFJ. Peterka0.14 xG
- 2nd 7:11PHIM. Michkov0.06 xG
- 3rd 0:15PHIT. Foerster0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:12BUFR. McLeodEN0.93 xG
- 3rd 19:41PHIB. Brink0.07 xG
Team Stats
PHIBUF
24Shots on goal31
2.29Expected goals4.17
52Shot attempts65
195v5 shots on goal28
1/2Power play0/1
10Hits14
17Blocked shots14
2Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways12
10Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.29 xGBUF 4.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Michkov | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:34 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 2:25 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:31 |
| B. Brink | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 1:39 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:15 | 2:33 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:46 | 1:20 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:59 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:14 | 1:09 |
| D. Kaplan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:59 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:20 | 0:21 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 20:30 | 1:34 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:23 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 58:49 | Loss |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 0:41 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:01 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:33 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3 | 2 | 14:27 | 1:27 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:27 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:23 | 1:19 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:59 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:33 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| I. Rosen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:57 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:48 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 1:03 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reimer | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 60:00 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 3.0, BUF 3.6 | PHI 4, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 26.9, BUF 27.6 | PHI 24, BUF 31 |
| Win chance | BUF 58% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.1 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.8 | 6 | 0.86 | 3 | 27% | 2 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.4 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.2 | 2 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.56 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 5 | 0.61 | 3 | 20% | 1 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 5 | 0.43 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF I. Rosen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.9 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.