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Game Recap
PHI3
BUF5
BUF beat PHI 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 2.91. Z. Benson led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Lyon stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| BUF | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 7:40BUFJ. Quinn0.10 xG
- 1st 8:38PHIN. Cates0.11 xG
- 2nd 11:01PHIC. York0.14 xG
- 2nd 16:54BUFT. Thompson0.14 xG
- 2nd 19:30BUFN. Ostlund0.03 xG
- 3rd 10:20BUFJ. NorrisPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 14:28PHIT. Konecny0.07 xG
- 3rd 19:52BUFR. McLeodEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
PHIBUF
27Shots on goal28
2.91Expected goals3.68
56Shot attempts52
225v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play1/5
29Hits24
10Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways25
1Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.91 xGBUF 3.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 14:38 | 2:04 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:32 | 4:02 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:06 | 3:57 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 2:34 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:37 | 2:19 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:21 | 3:43 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:57 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:27 | 3:17 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:43 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:31 | 2:08 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:46 | 3:50 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:23 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:12 | 2:18 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 6:29 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 2 | 21:29 | 1:47 |
| T. Thompson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 6:33 |
| J. Norris | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:38 | 5:27 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:51 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 1:45 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 6:30 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 4:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 23:20 | 5:31 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:13 | 2:47 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:41 | 1:50 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lyon | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 59:52 | Win |
| U. Luukkonen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny14:58T. Zegras16:19C. Dvorak12:33
Line 2S. Couturier11:15C. Grundstrom12:17O. Tippett13:03
Line 3N. Cates9:45M. Michkov12:10B. Brink12:34
Line 4N. Deslauriers6:43G. Hathaway6:54R. Abols7:27
Pair 1E. Andrae16:52J. Drysdale15:23
Pair 2T. Sanheim15:13C. York14:06
Pair 3N. Seeler15:13R. Ristolainen14:10
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson13:38P. Krebs13:27J. Doan13:06
Line 2J. Norris14:03N. Ostlund13:40A. Tuch17:07
Line 4J. Greenway7:08B. Malenstyn5:45T. Kozak4:29
Pair 1M. Samuelsson17:17R. Dahlin17:17
Pair 2C. Timmins13:54B. Byram16:02
Pair 3O. Power14:15M. Kesselring12:20
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.8, BUF 3.1 | PHI 3, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 25.6, BUF 26.8 | PHI 27, BUF 28 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.3 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.3 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 2.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 4 | 0.52 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.7 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.6 | 4 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.4 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BUF M. Kesselring | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.