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Game Recap
PHI2
BUF5
BUF beat PHI 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.84 expected goals to 2.48. R. Dahlin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Zegras had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. U. Luukkonen stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| BUF | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 9:30BUFR. DahlinPP0.15 xG
- 1st 15:13BUFM. Samuelsson0.16 xG
- 2nd 4:22BUFJ. Quinn0.18 xG
- 2nd 10:28PHIO. Tippett0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:51BUFR. DahlinPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:37PHIT. ZegrasPP0.21 xG
- 3rd 19:20BUFR. McLeodEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
PHIBUF
22Shots on goal15
2.48Expected goals3.84
52Shot attempts38
175v5 shots on goal8
1/5Power play2/6
26Hits27
9Blocked shots9
12Penalty minutes8
5Giveaways17
2Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 2.48 xGBUF 3.84 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 4:17 |
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 23:07 | 4:37 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 22:25 | 4:29 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:25 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:43 | 4:37 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 2:52 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:50 | 1:42 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:25 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:25 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:25 | 3:33 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:29 | 2:35 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:48 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:51 | 1:25 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:23 | 5:39 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:49 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 5:46 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 1:02 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:26 | 0:27 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 1:12 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:32 | 1:23 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:55 | 2:11 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 5:44 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:22 | 5:50 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:04 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 23:47 | 2:07 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:42 | 0:52 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:00 |
| Z. Metsa | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:31 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Ellis | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny15:32T. Zegras16:19C. Dvorak14:36
Line 2N. Cates11:11N. Grebenkin11:40O. Tippett11:03
Line 3S. Couturier10:14C. Grundstrom8:43M. Michkov10:47
Line 4N. Deslauriers5:03R. Abols6:41G. Hathaway7:04
Pair 1J. Drysdale19:27E. Andrae16:56
Pair 2T. Sanheim12:38C. York14:09
Pair 3N. Seeler12:01N. Juulsen11:16
BUF
Line 1T. Thompson14:17Z. Benson14:39A. Tuch14:29
Line 3J. Doan9:04N. Ostlund8:46J. Norris6:44
Line 4P. Krebs10:55T. Kozak7:56B. Malenstyn7:30
Pair 2M. Samuelsson15:57R. Dahlin14:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 3.0, BUF 3.4 | PHI 2, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 26.8, BUF 26.4 | PHI 22, BUF 15 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 2 | 1.05 | 2 | 42% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.7 | 4 | 0.62 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.5 | 4 | 0.83 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.3 | 0 | 0.86 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 2.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.1 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.1 | 7 | 0.78 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.0 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.5 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF N. Ostlund | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Metsa | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.