Game Recap: PHI 3, BUF 1, October 21, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalWed, Oct 21, 2026Every game that night

BUF1

PHI beat BUF 3-1, with the chances close: 3.41 expected goals to 3.45. C. Knuble led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Vladar stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	2	0	1	3
BUF	0	1	0	1

1st 14:49PHIC. Knuble0.16 xG
1st 19:17PHIT. ZegrasPP0.14 xG
2nd 19:25BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.22 xG
3rd 3:03PHIC. Knuble0.06 xG

Team Stats

PHIBUF

26Shots on goal28

3.41Expected goals3.45

54Shot attempts55

175v5 shots on goal17

1/5Power play1/3

19Hits14

13Blocked shots13

11Penalty minutes25

16Giveaways16

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.41 xGBUF 3.45 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI27 on goal, 3 scored

BUF28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Knuble	RW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	10:24	0:09
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:02	5:06
T. Zegras	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:36	5:05
D. Barkey	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	12:19	3:56
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:39	2:54
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:32	0:05
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	16:47	3:15
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:50	4:48
A. Bump	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:45	2:24
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14:04	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:53	0:00
J. Gaucher	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+2	0	8:55	0:00
O. Bonk	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	19:34	2:29
J. Drysdale	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	24:37	4:41
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	2	26:19	2:53
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	17:59	0:05
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	13:38	0:00
H. McDonald	D	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	5	13:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ostlund	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	2	21:40	5:08
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	2	20:45	5:08
J. Zucker	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	12:16	0:27
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:21	4:41
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	20:05	4:44
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:43	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	13:41	0:24
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:32	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:07	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	10:07	0:00
K. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:07	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:50	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	4	3	0	-1	0	26:27	5:08
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	26:12	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	17	22:51	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:11	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:43	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	10:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	26	23	3	.885	57:26	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1S. Couturier14:15A. Bump13:21T. Foerster12:10

Line 2M. Michkov12:52P. Martone10:37N. Cates10:15

Line 3C. Dvorak11:08T. Zegras11:31N. Acciari11:23

Line 4J. Gaucher8:00D. Barkey7:59C. Knuble8:15

Pair 1T. Sanheim19:05O. Bonk15:47

Pair 2N. Seeler14:46J. Drysdale15:06

Pair 3S. Benoit12:07H. McDonald11:48

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson13:44J. Doan12:34J.Kulich12:04

Line 2N. Ostlund13:46J. Quinn12:55Z. Benson12:06

Line 3J. Zucker10:20J. Norris10:42K. Helenius8:46

Line 4R. McLeod9:43B. Malenstyn6:43P. Krebs8:50

Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:16R. Dahlin19:01

Pair 2O. Power20:39O. Zellweger14:38

Pair 3L. Crevier7:02Z. Metsa7:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 21 overs hit (48%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	+110	-120	3	Under
BUF J. Quinn	2.5	-106	-120	4	Over
PHI M. Michkov	2.5	+135	-168	2	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	+115	-138	4	Over
PHI T. Zegras	2.5	+150	-185	4	Over
PHI A. Bump	1.5	-145	+100	3	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	-105	-110	2	Over
BUF J. Doan	1.5	-150	+126	2	Over
BUF J. Norris	1.5	-110	-120	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	1.5	-105	-110	3	Over
BUF J.Kulich	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under
BUF K. Helenius	1.5	+130	-200	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	1.5	+135	-200	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	1.5	+125	-190	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	1.5	+120	-175	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	1.5	-115	+115	3	Over
BUF O. Power	1.5	-105	-140	2	Over
BUF O. Zellweger	1.5	-145	+100	2	Over
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-160	+125	1	Under
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	+126	-155	1	Under
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	-160	+142	1	Under

2 of 34 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
PHI A. Bump	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+500	-550	0	Under
PHI H. McDonald	0.5	+2500	–	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+900	-2000	0	Under
PHI J. Gaucher	0.5	+950	-2500	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+360	-650	1	Over
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+775	-2000	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+360	-390	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
BUF O. Power	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+340	-400	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+3000	-10000	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+290	-390	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+280	-320	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under

6 of 32 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
PHI A. Bump	0.5	+350	–	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+700	–	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+200	-245	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+270	-325	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+215	-245	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+190	-250	1	Over
PHI J. Gaucher	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+155	-185	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+230	-260	0	Under
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+225	-270	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+250	-280	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+195	-225	1	Over
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+320	-450	2	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+270	-340	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+320	-350	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+220	-280	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+245	-335	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+165	-195	0	Under
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+140	-180	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+500	–	0	Under

8 of 32 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
PHI A. Bump	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+120	-125	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
BUF J. Doan	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+150	-180	1	Over
PHI J. Gaucher	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	-132	+115	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+125	-145	1	Over
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
BUF K. Helenius	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
BUF L. Crevier	0.5	+360	–	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.5	+175	-205	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+185	-245	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	-105	-110	1	Over
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+235	-330	2	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
BUF O. Zellweger	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
BUF P. Krebs	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+112	-130	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	-185	+155	0	Under
BUF R. McLeod	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+195	-235	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+200	-245	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	-200	+190	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	-130	+100	0	Under
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	+400	–	0	Under

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
PHI A. Bump	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+310	-650	0	Under
BUF J. Doan	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+320	-700	1	Over
BUF J. Norris	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
BUF J. Quinn	0.5	+290	-375	1	Over
BUF J. Zucker	0.5	+400	-700	1	Over
BUF J.Kulich	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+280	-425	1	Over
BUF N. Ostlund	0.5	+380	-500	1	Over
BUF O. Power	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	0.5	+230	-240	0	Under
BUF T. Thompson	0.5	+250	-280	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+270	-325	1	Over
BUF Z. Benson	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI D. Vladar	24.5	-112	-105	27	Over
BUF U. Luukkonen	21.5	-110	-110	23	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PHI N. Seeler	2.5	+120	-170	2	Under
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.5	+100	-140	1	Under
BUF R. Dahlin	1.5	+130	-185	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	-180	+130	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, BUF 3.4	PHI 3, BUF 1
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	PHI 23.3, BUF 29.3	PHI 26, BUF 28
Win chance	BUF 63%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	3	1.00	0	39%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.6	4	0.77	1	27%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	4	0.78	0	17%	0
BUF Z. Benson	2.3	1	0.78	0	24%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	2	0.57	0	22%	0
BUF J.Kulich	2.0	1	0.46	0	20%	0
BUF O. Zellweger	1.9	2	0.34	0	10%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	2	0.61	1	22%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.8	4	0.71	1	24%	1
PHI P. Martone	1.7	1	0.44	0	16%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.7	3	0.53	1	21%	1
BUF O. Power	1.6	2	0.62	0	13%	0
BUF K. Helenius	1.6	0	0.38	0	15%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.6	3	0.67	1	24%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	2	0.55	0	20%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.4	0	0.48	0	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	1	0.42	0	10%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.4	0	0.31	0	15%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.4	0	0.51	0	23%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.3	1	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.35	1	8%	0
PHI A. Bump	1.3	3	0.35	0	15%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	0	0.38	0	14%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
BUF L. Crevier	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
PHI O. Bonk	1.0	0	0.39	2	7%	0
PHI D. Barkey	0.9	2	0.39	1	14%	0
PHI J. Gaucher	0.9	1	0.11	0	7%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.8	0	0.34	0	10%	0
BUF R. McLeod	0.8	1	0.40	0	13%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.7	1	0.17	0	7%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.6	1	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.