Game Recap: PHI 4, CAR 6, November 5, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI4

FinalTue, Nov 5, 2024Every game that night

CAR6

CAR beat PHI 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.83 expected goals to 2.03. CAR outshot PHI 35 to 16. T. Konecny led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Martinook had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. P. Kochetkov stopped 12 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	1	2	4
CAR	1	2	3	6

1st 7:54PHIT. KonecnyPP0.25 xG
1st 14:25CARJ. Blake0.19 xG
2nd 8:56CARE. Robinson0.11 xG
2nd 9:50CARJ. Martinook0.04 xG
2nd 13:30PHIO. Tippett0.07 xG
3rd 1:18PHIM. Frost0.08 xG
3rd 1:47CARJ. Roslovic0.44 xG
3rd 9:17PHIT. Konecny0.04 xG
3rd 19:29CARM. Necas0.15 xG
3rd 19:58CARS. JarvisEN0.40 xG

Team Stats

PHICAR

16Shots on goal35

2.03Expected goals4.83

36Shot attempts86

145v5 shots on goal28

1/3Power play0/2

18Hits13

20Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways5

12Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.03 xGCAR 4.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI16 on goal, 4 scored

CAR35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	2	2	4	2	0	2	0	0	22:11	1:56
S. Couturier	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	-1	2	20:11	1:21
O. Tippett	RW	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	0	18:07	1:56
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:57	1:56
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	13:34	1:56
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	16:08	0:56
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:00	0:11
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:27	0:56
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-3	0	13:09	1:01
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:50	0:18
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:12	0:13
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	7:04	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	0	4	3	-1	0	25:10	0:18
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	24:44	0:16
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	23:59	1:39
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	0	18:16	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	14:09	1:15
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	10:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Kolosov	34	29	5	.853	58:54	Loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	16:47	1:31
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+2	0	19:22	1:41
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	18:02	1:31
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	17:26	0:07
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	15:30	1:48
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:47	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	13:02	0:29
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	11:26	0:29
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:52	0:29
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	2	16:57	0:09
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	12:53	0:09
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	9:55	0:08
B. Burns	D	0	2	2	4	0	1	+2	0	22:49	0:29
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	23:32	0:20
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	18:56	0:17
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:50	0:17
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:21	1:31
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	16	12	4	.750	60:00	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.4, CAR 3.6	PHI 4, CAR 6
Total goals	6.0	10
Shots on goal	PHI 25.6, CAR 32.2	PHI 16, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 69%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	6	0.52	2	22%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.7	2	0.97	1	30%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.6	2	0.75	4	28%	2
CAR S. Aho	2.6	1	1.12	1	37%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.6	5	0.88	2	28%	1
CAR S. Jarvis	2.1	4	0.83	1	30%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.1	1	0.41	2	14%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.0	4	0.57	2	12%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.7	5	0.47	1	16%	1
PHI M. Frost	1.6	1	0.43	1	13%	1
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	0	0.66	0	13%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.6	3	0.54	1	18%	1
CAR D. Orlov	1.6	1	0.49	1	11%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	0	0.46	1	8%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	1	0.50	1	18%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	4	0.48	0	17%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.5	0	0.39	0	14%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	1	0.33	0	17%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.40	0	16%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	0	0.35	1	8%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.5	0	0.39	1	12%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.4	1	0.44	1	17%	1
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	1	0.34	0	17%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.4	0	0.37	0	15%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	1	0.26	0	7%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	1	0.32	0	9%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.2	0	0.31	0	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	1	0.34	1	13%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	0	0.25	0	5%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	0	0.16	0	3%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	1	0.22	0	10%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.0	0	0.27	0	10%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.5	2	0.07	0	4%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.5	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.