Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PHI3
Final/OTSun, Nov 8, 2026Every game that night
CGY4

CGY beat PHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.71 expected goals to 3.29. PHI outshot CGY 35 to 26. S. Couturier led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). O. Tippett had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. D. Cooley stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
PHI12003
CGY11114
  1. 1st 12:46PHID. Barkey0.31 xG
  2. 1st 15:26CGYZ. Parekh0.15 xG
  3. 2nd 2:16PHIN. Acciari0.06 xG
  4. 2nd 5:59CGYZ. Whitecloud0.03 xG
  5. 2nd 15:07PHIO. TippettPP0.20 xG
  6. 3rd 8:27CGYJ. FarabeeSH0.57 xG
  7. OT 4:08CGYM. Coronato0.25 xG

Team Stats

PHICGY
35Shots on goal26
3.29Expected goals3.71
67Shot attempts67
255v5 shots on goal19
1/3Power play0/2
25Hits21
18Blocked shots19
4Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways12
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.29 xGCGY 3.71 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTPHI goal, 12:46CGY goal, 15:26PHI goal, 2:16CGY goal, 5:59PHI goal, 15:07CGY goal, 8:27CGY goal, 4:08

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI34 on goal, 3 scored
CGY25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. CouturierC022310+2013:430:20
C. DvorakC011312-2020:092:04
O. TippettRW101620-4016:381:59
D. BarkeyC101330+2014:043:10
N. AcciariC101221+2013:050:18
T. KonecnyRW000310-1018:442:10
T. ZegrasC000200-2216:413:12
P. MartoneRW0002400216:362:58
M. MichkovRW0000000016:273:07
T. FoersterRW000240-1016:171:48
N. CatesLW0001020014:360:00
C. KnubleRW000120-2012:140:00
J. DrysdaleD0114140022:083:27
O. BonkD011101-1018:441:55
N. SeelerD011102+1016:510:00
T. SanheimD000003-1023:230:22
C. YorkD000112-1021:440:00
S. BenoitD0000310016:200:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Vladar26224.84664:08OT loss
J. Woll000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
Y. SharangovichC022010+2018:461:32
J. FarabeeLW101501+1020:312:18
M. GridinRW011213+1019:062:22
M. CoronatoRW101101+1016:522:24
M. PospisilC011350+1014:100:00
A. SunievLW011141+2214:061:38
M. BacklundC0001010018:380:00
M. FrostC000112+2217:382:30
A. KlapkaRW000120-2014:481:35
R. StromeC0001010012:291:34
J. CastagnaC000010-2010:570:00
W. StromgrenLW000000-208:470:00
Z. WhitecloudD101222+1022:190:07
S. NemecD011002+1022:081:29
Z. ParekhD101401-1221:382:31
Y. KuznetsovD011230-1018:030:00
J. MiddletonD000103+2018:310:00
J. HanleyD000111+1017:350:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Cooley35323.91464:08Win
D. Wolf000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak15:16T. Konecny15:54T. Foerster13:36
Line 2P. Martone13:38M. Michkov12:29N. Cates12:40
Line 3O. Tippett13:02C. Knuble12:14T. Zegras12:15
Line 4S. Couturier10:35D. Barkey10:07N. Acciari10:05
Pair 1T. Sanheim18:38J. Drysdale17:19
Pair 2C. York17:42O. Bonk16:49
Pair 3N. Seeler15:42S. Benoit15:09

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund15:21J. Farabee14:01M. Coronato13:11
Line 2M. Frost14:25A. Suniev12:28Y. Sharangovich13:13
Line 3M. Gridin15:17M. Pospisil11:35R. Strome10:55
Line 4W. Stromgren8:47J. Castagna9:32A. Klapka13:13
Pair 1J. Hanley15:05S. Nemec18:17
Pair 2J. Middleton15:45Z. Whitecloud19:19
Pair 3Z. Parekh17:20Y. Kuznetsov15:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
CGY J. Farabee2.5+135-1685Over
CGY M. Backlund2.5+142-1751Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+102-1251Under
CGY M. Gridin2.5+136-1782Under
PHI O. Tippett2.5+135-1656Over
CGY A. Klapka1.5+125-1551Under
CGY A. Suniev1.5-110-1151Under
PHI C. Dvorak1.5-105-1153Over
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+113-1304Over
CGY M. Frost1.5-125+1001Under
PHI M. Michkov1.5-170+1420Under
PHI P. Martone1.5-135+1102Over
CGY R. Strome1.5+125-1551Under
CGY S. Nemec1.5+105-1320Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-148+1202Over
PHI T. Konecny1.5-146+1203Over
PHI T. Sanheim1.5+100-1200Under
PHI T. Zegras1.5-165+1382Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-120-1020Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-105-1114Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamDan Vladar PHI Faces CGY, his team until Apr 202522 saves on 26
  • Old teamJoel Farabee CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20251 G, 5 SOG
  • Old teamMorgan Frost CGY Faces PHI, his team until Jan 20251 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.8, CGY 3.0PHI 3, CGY 4
Total goals5.87
Shots on goalPHI 26.0, CGY 27.5PHI 35, CGY 26
Win chanceCGY 52%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CGY M. Coronato2.310.66123%1
PHI O. Tippett2.360.52124%1
CGY M. Backlund2.310.49019%0
PHI M. Michkov2.100.73026%0
CGY J. Farabee2.150.63124%1
CGY M. Gridin2.020.60119%0
PHI T. Foerster2.020.49025%0
PHI T. Konecny1.930.72024%0
PHI P. Martone1.820.55020%0
PHI T. Zegras1.720.63021%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.730.56120%0
PHI C. Knuble1.610.32016%0
CGY M. Frost1.610.52019%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.500.39219%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.540.4419%0
CGY S. Nemec1.500.37111%0
PHI S. Couturier1.530.41214%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.540.41112%1
CGY R. Strome1.510.44014%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.400.40010%0
CGY A. Suniev1.410.34117%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.430.33111%0
CGY A. Klapka1.210.29012%0
PHI N. Cates1.210.39014%0
PHI O. Bonk1.210.4116%0
PHI N. Acciari1.220.25112%1
PHI C. York1.110.2706%0
PHI D. Barkey1.130.46115%1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.020.2015%0
CGY W. Stromgren1.000.23012%0
PHI N. Seeler0.910.1713%0
CGY J. Middleton0.910.2305%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.920.2315%1
CGY J. Castagna0.900.26010%0
PHI S. Benoit0.800.1002%0
CGY J. Hanley0.810.1704%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.