Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PHI4
DET6
DET beat PHI 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 1.97. P. Kane led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lyon stopped 15 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| DET | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 1:06PHIT. Konecny0.08 xG
- 1st 18:19DETJ. CompherPP0.15 xG
- 2nd 10:15DETA. DeBrincat0.18 xG
- 2nd 10:40PHIN. Cates0.17 xG
- 2nd 16:05DETM. Rasmussen0.03 xG
- 2nd 17:27DETJ. Veleno0.22 xG
- 3rd 3:50PHIR. Poehling0.08 xG
- 3rd 5:39PHIO. Tippett0.17 xG
- 3rd 7:22DETP. Kane0.08 xG
- 3rd 18:48DETL. RaymondEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
PHIDET
19Shots on goal24
1.97Expected goals3.53
46Shot attempts52
175v5 shots on goal15
0/1Power play1/3
18Hits15
19Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways10
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.97 xGDET 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:54 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:39 | 1:30 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:15 | 0:30 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:02 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:30 |
| N. Cates | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| R. Poehling | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:30 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:28 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:55 | 1:32 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:17 | 0:04 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:29 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:31 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Ersson | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 58:02 | Loss |
| A. Kolosov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:40 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 2:40 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 2:42 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:48 | 1:59 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 0:57 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 2:01 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:53 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:01 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:01 | 2:35 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 28:02 | 2:26 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 29:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:30 | 2:11 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:36 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 3.1, DET 3.2 | PHI 4, DET 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 30.6, DET 26.3 | PHI 19, DET 24 |
| Win chance | DET 52% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.9 | 1 | 0.99 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 1 | 1.05 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.6 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 3 | 0.85 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.2 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI J. Farabee | 2.2 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 1.02 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.9 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI M. Frost | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI S. Laughton | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.57 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.