Game Recap: PHI 1, DET 2, October 15, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI1

FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night

DET2

DET beat PHI 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.58 expected goals to 2.21. DET outshot PHI 26 to 18. D. Tarasov stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	0	0	1
DET	0	1	1	2

1st 17:32PHIM. Michkov0.74 xG
2nd 4:31DETA. Johansson0.15 xG
3rd 15:22DETA. Copp0.53 xG

Team Stats

PHIDET

18Shots on goal26

2.21Expected goals3.58

51Shot attempts63

125v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/4

20Hits19

17Blocked shots24

10Penalty minutes6

6Giveaways19

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.21 xGDET 3.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI17 on goal, 1 scored

DET24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:40	1:49
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:21	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:59	2:36
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	2	1	0	0	4	17:18	2:11
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:30	0:14
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:36	1:24
D. Barkey	C	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:28	1:53
N. Acciari	C	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	13:42	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	13:22	0:00
P. Martone	RW	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:29	2:27
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	3	2	0	-1	2	10:03	1:53
J. Studnicka	C	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	8:13	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	24:32	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:06	1:06
N. Seeler	D	0	0	3	2	3	0	2	21:18	0:00
O. Bonk	D	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	20:00	1:33
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:29	2:54
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	26	24	2	.923	59:55	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	23:15	6:45
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:48	0:44
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:42	0:44
N. Danielson	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:54	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	21:45	6:45
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	20:55	5:54
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:59	4:50
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:16	0:44
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	15:07	1:57
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	7:57	0:00
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	6:55	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:19	0:44
A. Johansson	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+1	4	10:34	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	+1	0	25:47	6:45
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:12	0:46
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:51	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	15:03	0:47
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	18	17	1	.944	60:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak15:19D. Barkey13:35T. Foerster14:14

Line 2O. Tippett12:37T. Zegras13:51S. Couturier12:40

Line 3M. Michkov10:41P. Martone9:59N. Cates10:33

Line 4N. Acciari9:19J. Studnicka8:13M. Bunting8:10

Pair 1T. Sanheim18:10O. Bonk16:23

Pair 2N. Seeler14:55J. Drysdale18:44

Pair 3D.Jiricek12:33S. Benoit12:39

DET

Line 1A. Copp14:24M. Rasmussen13:08L. Raymond14:30

Line 2A. DeBrincat14:37E. Finnie13:05M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:10

Line 3D. Larkin14:04V. Arvidsson14:24N. Danielson13:54

Line 4K. Kolesar7:29S. Dries6:25

Pair 1B. Chiarot17:35M. Seider16:50

Pair 2J. Faulk14:42W. Wallinder14:28

Pair 3A. Johansson10:34A. Johansson13:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+105	-115	4	Over
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-150	+120	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+125	-150	3	Over
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	-105	-110	1	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-113	-110	2	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	-111	+100	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	1.5	+160	-185	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-110	-110	1	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-104	-110	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-170	+142	3	Over
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-140	+125	1	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-155	+120	2	Over
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-140	+115	1	Under
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	+116	-125	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	-160	+140	2	Over
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	-115	+105	1	Under

2 of 33 overs hit (6%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+400	-650	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+165	-175	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1500	-2800	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+190	-200	0	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+1200	-10000	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
PHI J. Studnicka	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+255	-320	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+390	-475	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+360	-450	1	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+625	-700	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+575	-900	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+350	-400	0	Under
PHI S. Benoit	0.5	+3000	-10000	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+800	-1400	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+300	-390	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under

3 of 25 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+450	–	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+230	-240	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+290	-300	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+240	-260	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+240	-265	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+255	-325	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+210	-235	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+300	-425	1	Over
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+380	-575	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+265	-275	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+240	-295	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+300	-300	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+350	-375	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+185	-200	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+168	-210	0	Under

5 of 25 overs hit (20%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+135	-160	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-190	+165	0	Under
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+240	-330	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+130	-130	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-175	+140	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+145	-155	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+176	-180	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+180	-200	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-150	+125	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+140	-150	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+110	-132	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+100	-105	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+200	-255	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+160	-215	1	Over
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+124	-130	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+190	-185	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+205	-285	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-130	+120	0	Under

0 of 19 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+225	-250	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+340	-750	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+250	-280	Under
PHI D.Jiricek	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+310	-650	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+230	-280	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+325	-600	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+300	-375	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+300	-600	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+360	-650	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+360	-650	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+300	-400	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+250	-290	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI J. Woll	26.5	-120	-115	24	Under
DET D. Tarasov	23.5	+100	-132	17	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PHI N. Seeler	1.5	-170	–	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, DET 3.2	PHI 1, DET 2
Total goals	5.8	3
Shots on goal	PHI 23.9, DET 29.8	PHI 18, DET 26
Win chance	DET 59%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.4	4	0.99	0	35%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.9	2	0.90	1	34%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.9	2	0.82	0	29%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	1	0.62	0	26%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	3	0.87	0	27%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.2	3	0.41	0	16%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	2	0.63	0	10%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	2	0.53	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	1	0.59	1	20%	1
PHI P. Martone	1.7	1	0.44	0	16%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	0	0.50	0	17%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	1	0.70	0	24%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.6	2	0.43	1	10%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	1	0.42	0	18%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	2	0.53	1	17%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.6	0	0.54	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.4	1	0.44	0	11%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.35	1	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.22	0	7%	0
PHI M. Bunting	1.3	3	0.36	0	15%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	0	0.36	0	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	1	0.39	0	14%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.2	1	0.24	1	9%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	3	0.21	0	5%	0
DET S. Dries	1.1	0	0.17	0	10%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	1	0.44	0	15%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
PHI D.Jiricek	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.14	0	4%	0
PHI S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
PHI J. Studnicka	0.7	0	0.08	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	1	0.15	1	3%	1
DET K. Kolesar	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.