Game Recap: PHI 2, EDM 3 (OT), November 11, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI2

Final/OTWed, Nov 11, 2026Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat PHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.95. PHI outshot EDM 32 to 24. Z. Hyman led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Konecny had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. T. Jarry stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PHI	0	1	1	0	2
EDM	0	2	0	1	3

2nd 4:13EDMZ. Hyman0.33 xG
2nd 14:03EDMZ. HymanPP0.32 xG
2nd 16:49PHIT. FoersterPP0.05 xG
3rd 11:42PHIT. Sanheim0.08 xG
OT 0:47EDME. Bouchard0.31 xG

Team Stats

PHIEDM

32Shots on goal24

2.95Expected goals2.74

64Shot attempts49

275v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play1/1

20Hits17

13Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways16

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.95 xGEDM 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI30 on goal, 2 scored

EDM24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	20:44	4:43
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	20:04	3:17
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	17:50	3:16
O. Tippett	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:39	2:17
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	5	4	2	0	0	18:08	3:23
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:06	4:06
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	16:57	3:48
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:48	3:49
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:12	0:16
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:46	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:25	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	24:41	0:41
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	0	0	18:24	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	24:00	4:14
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	19:49	0:00
O. Bonk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	14:56	3:07
C. York	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:32	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	24	21	3	.875	60:47	OT loss
J. Woll	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Z. Hyman	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+1	0	15:50	0:20
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	24:00	0:20
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	21:22	0:20
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	15:46	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	17:39	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:00	0:20
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:27	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	11:29	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	9:23	0:00
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	9:06	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:50	0:00
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:10	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	26:31	0:20
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	22:54	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	23:18	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	2	22:11	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	14:47	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	32	30	2	.938	60:47	Win
D. Levi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny14:45T. Foerster14:34T. Zegras13:09

Line 2S. Couturier13:36D. Barkey14:00N. Acciari6:05

Line 3M. Michkov15:51P. Martone11:59N. Cates13:53

Line 4C. Dvorak16:07O. Tippett13:45M. Bunting8:46

Pair 1T. Sanheim23:08J. Drysdale19:31

Pair 2N. Seeler19:49R. Ristolainen18:24

Pair 3C. York12:09O. Bonk11:49

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl19:59C. McDavid19:53V. Podkolzin17:39

Line 2Z. Hyman15:14R. Nugent-Hopkins16:36C. Dach15:46

Line 3J. Dickinson9:21T. Frederic9:23K. Kapanen12:12

Line 4O. Michaels7:27M. Joseph6:40A. Formenton6:12

Pair 1M. Ekholm20:34E. Bouchard24:16

Pair 2C. Murphy18:07R. Shea18:22

Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin12:25T. Emberson11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	+132	-160	2	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.5	+130	-155	4	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-110	-110	2	Under
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	+140	-170	1	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	+135	-154	4	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	+120	-160	4	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	+135	-155	1	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	+110	-125	1	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	+108	-125	2	Over
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-135	+120	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-118	+105	1	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-175	+140	1	Under
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	+135	-180	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	-125	+110	3	Over
PHI T. Konecny	1.5	-125	+100	5	Over
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	-125	+115	4	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-115	+100	3	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
EDM A. Formenton	0.5	+800	-1000	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+600	-750	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under
PHI C. York	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+275	-390	1	Over
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+825	-1400	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+110	-145	0	Under
PHI M. Bunting	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+775	-1200	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+1000	-1200	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+250	-370	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
EDM O. Michaels	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+375	-475	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+350	-470	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+265	-300	0	Under
PHI R. Ristolainen	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+2500	-4000	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+333	-550	1	Over
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+950	-2800	1	Over
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+340	-370	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+220	-285	2	Over

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+165	-197	1	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+280	-335	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+265	-350	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-165	+140	1	Over
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+210	-235	1	Over
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+240	-295	1	Over
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+290	-425	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+250	-295	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+145	-150	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+285	-390	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+186	-210	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under

7 of 19 overs hit (37%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	-135	+115	1	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	+200	-235	2	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+110	-125	1	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+150	-180	1	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+150	-185	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+145	-180	1	Over
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+110	-130	1	Over
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+150	-175	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+135	-145	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-125	+120	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+205	-260	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+102	-115	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+120	-130	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	-105	-105	2	Over

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+475	-1400	1	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-110	-120	1	Over
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+390	-550	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+140	-160	1	Over
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+400	-500	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+105	-140	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+390	-1000	1	Over
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+400	-625	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+180	-235	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+380	-900	1	Over
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+340	-525	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
PHI D. Vladar	24.5	-106	-115	21	Under
EDM T. Jarry	21.5	-110	-120	30	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PHI C. York	1.5	-180	+130	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneJason Dickinson EDM 1 assist from 100Not yet: 2 SOG
MilestoneZach Hyman EDM 3 points from 500Not yet: 2 G, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, EDM 3.5	PHI 2, EDM 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	PHI 23.7, EDM 27.7	PHI 32, EDM 24
Win chance	EDM 62%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	2	1.68	1	40%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.0	4	1.52	1	45%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	1	0.54	1	26%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.4	2	1.13	2	22%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.3	4	0.78	2	36%	2
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	0	0.66	1	24%	0
PHI P. Martone	1.8	1	0.54	0	20%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	1	0.52	0	20%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.8	4	0.68	0	23%	0
PHI M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.43	0	18%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.7	3	0.43	1	22%	1
PHI T. Konecny	1.7	5	0.67	0	23%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	1	0.72	0	22%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	3	0.47	0	19%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	4	0.53	1	19%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.4	0	0.41	0	14%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.4	2	0.50	1	10%	0
EDM C. Dach	1.3	1	0.32	1	14%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.43	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	3	0.39	1	10%	1
EDM A. Formenton	1.3	0	0.30	0	15%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.1	1	0.26	0	13%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.1	1	0.28	1	5%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.1	3	0.38	0	14%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	1	0.20	0	11%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	0	0.26	0	6%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	2	0.45	0	15%	0
PHI O. Bonk	1.0	1	0.37	0	5%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	0.9	2	0.27	0	12%	0
EDM R. Shea	0.9	0	0.39	0	7%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.9	1	0.18	0	3%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.8	0	0.27	0	9%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.7	0	0.17	0	6%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.