Game Recap: PHI 3, FLA 4 (SO), November 9, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI3

Final/SOSat, Nov 9, 2024Every game that night

FLA4

FLA beat PHI 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.74 expected goals to 3.97. S. Laughton led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). O. Tippett had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	1	1	1	0	3
FLA	0	3	0	1	4

1st 4:57PHIJ. Farabee0.34 xG
2nd 5:32FLAN. Schmidt0.04 xG
2nd 8:40FLAD. Kulikov0.16 xG
2nd 13:00PHIA. Richard0.06 xG
2nd 14:56FLAS. Bennett0.13 xG
3rd 9:47PHIG. Hathaway0.03 xG

Team Stats

PHIFLA

37Shots on goal31

3.97Expected goals2.74

55Shot attempts67

265v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/2

23Hits16

16Blocked shots7

4Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways14

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.97 xGFLA 2.74 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI37 on goal, 3 scored

FLA29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Laughton	C	0	2	2	3	2	1	-1	0	16:14	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	2	24:08	1:34
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-2	0	19:22	1:57
B. Brink	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	-2	0	14:17	2:32
G. Hathaway	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:58	0:00
A. Richard	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	11:13	1:28
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	0	0	24:21	2:14
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	7	1	1	0	0	24:18	2:35
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:15	1:25
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:11	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:30	1:46
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:47	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+2	0	21:52	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	+1	2	18:38	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	30:19	0:29
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	19:55	2:42
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:53	1:18
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	31	28	3	.903	64:47	OT loss
I. Fedotov	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Rodrigues	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	2	17:28	1:03
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:05	2:57
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	20:03	2:53
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	15:57	2:45
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:14	1:07
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	20:07	0:58
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	18:45	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:06	0:00
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:17	3:02
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:55	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	10:15	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:29	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+2	0	20:21	0:00
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	2	19:31	0:00
N. Schmidt	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	14:52	1:13
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	24:34	1:15
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	23:56	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:05	2:47

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	37	34	3	.919	65:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.5, FLA 3.4	PHI 3, FLA 4
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	PHI 26.7, FLA 29.1	PHI 37, FLA 31
Win chance	FLA 64%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.0	3	0.96	1	36%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.9	7	0.57	0	24%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	1	1.12	0	32%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.7	3	0.82	1	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	0	1.05	1	41%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	2	0.72	1	27%	1
PHI S. Couturier	2.3	4	0.47	0	16%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.2	0	1.11	1	30%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	3	0.72	0	22%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	1	0.56	2	20%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.8	2	0.42	0	10%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.7	4	0.53	0	12%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.6	3	0.40	2	15%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	1	0.43	0	14%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	1	0.47	0	11%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.5	5	0.40	1	16%	1
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	1	0.33	0	18%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.4	0	0.23	1	4%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	4	0.33	1	14%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.3	0	0.18	1	4%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	2	0.43	0	16%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.2	1	0.28	0	12%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.2	2	0.32	0	10%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	3	0.27	1	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.0	1	0.21	1	10%	1
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	3	0.38	0	16%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	2	0.30	1	5%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
PHI A. Richard	0.9	2	0.32	1	13%	1
FLA N. Schmidt	0.9	2	0.27	1	5%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	1	0.24	0	4%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.6	1	0.13	0	6%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.6	3	0.15	0	3%	0
PHI N. Deslauriers	0.5	0	0.07	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.