Game Recap: PHI 4, LAK 5, December 29, 2024

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Game Recap

PHI4

FinalSun, Dec 29, 2024Every game that night

LAK5

LAK beat PHI 5-4, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.36. A. Kopitar led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Ristolainen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Rittich stopped 17 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	2	2	0	4
LAK	2	1	2	5

1st 5:14LAKK. Fiala0.02 xG
1st 8:17PHIT. Foerster0.18 xG
1st 14:09PHIS. Laughton0.15 xG
1st 16:54LAKA. Kempe0.12 xG
2nd 11:03PHIM. Michkov0.01 xG
2nd 13:42PHIJ. Farabee0.24 xG
2nd 15:04LAKW. Foegele0.03 xG
3rd 6:44LAKA. Kopitar0.26 xG
3rd 8:55LAKA. KopitarPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

PHILAK

21Shots on goal20

2.36Expected goals2.56

51Shot attempts62

175v5 shots on goal18

0/1Power play1/1

14Hits24

20Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways7

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.36 xGLAK 2.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI21 on goal, 4 scored

LAK20 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Michkov	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	2	16:35	1:19
S. Laughton	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	18:04	1:15
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	13:59	0:24
J. Farabee	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	12:06	0:45
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	10:01	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	1	1	0	3	3	0	0	9:24	0:00
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:01	0:27
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	18:45	1:33
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	3	3	4	-1	0	17:57	0:27
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	17:18	1:33
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:38	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	2	22:13	1:32
R. Ristolainen	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	22:04	0:28
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	20:48	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:08	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:20	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	15:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Kolosov	20	15	5	.750	57:34	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	1	1	2	3	2	1	+1	2	23:36	0:05
A. Kopitar	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	0	21:17	0:05
Q. Byfield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	2	20:37	0:05
K. Fiala	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-2	0	20:30	0:05
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	18:12	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	16:38	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:09	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:02	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	9:56	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	7:32	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	14:28	0:05
J. Moverare	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	13:41	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	27:20	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	23:35	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	21:26	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:58	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	21	17	4	.810	60:00	Win
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamScott Laughton LAK Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20251 G, 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, LAK 3.3	PHI 4, LAK 5
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	PHI 25.5, LAK 27.2	PHI 21, LAK 20
Win chance	LAK 61%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	3	1.04	2	39%	1
LAK K. Fiala	2.7	5	0.99	1	34%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	3	0.65	1	25%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.4	1	0.84	0	30%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	3	0.51	0	23%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	1	0.63	1	26%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	2	0.73	1	22%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.9	1	0.44	0	15%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.7	1	0.66	1	22%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.6	1	0.38	1	16%	1
PHI S. Laughton	1.6	1	0.42	2	15%	1
LAK B. Clarke	1.6	0	0.50	1	7%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	2	0.40	1	20%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	1	0.39	1	9%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	2	0.52	2	18%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.4	2	0.96	2	27%	2
PHI M. Frost	1.4	1	0.42	1	15%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.44	0	8%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.2	2	0.37	0	15%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	0	0.43	1	14%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.2	0	0.34	0	7%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.2	4	0.20	1	3%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	0	0.28	1	7%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	1.1	0	0.34	0	16%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.19	0	3%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.0	0	0.21	1	10%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.9	0	0.37	0	5%	0
LAK A. Lee	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
PHI R. Poehling	0.9	0	0.26	1	11%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.7	0	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	1	0.09	1	3%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.3	0	0.06	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.