Game Recap: PHI 1, MIN 4, December 14, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PHI1

FinalSat, Dec 14, 2024Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat PHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.23 expected goals to 1.75. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Ristolainen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. M. Fleury stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	0	1	1
MIN	1	1	2	4

1st 14:18MINK. Kaprizov0.05 xG
2nd 15:21MINM. Boldy0.19 xG
3rd 9:34MINM. Rossi0.10 xG
3rd 14:18PHIT. Sanheim0.02 xG
3rd 17:50MINK. KaprizovEN0.78 xG

Team Stats

PHIMIN

22Shots on goal22

1.75Expected goals2.23

52Shot attempts40

175v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/1

17Hits18

11Blocked shots16

9Penalty minutes13

14Giveaways15

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 1.75 xGMIN 2.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI22 on goal, 1 scored

MIN21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Poehling	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:38	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	1	1	0	9	1	+1	7	11:12	0:06
T. Konecny	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	22:21	3:47
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	18:09	3:39
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:08	3:41
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:51	1:16
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:39	1:10
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	15:09	1:15
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	15:01	1:11
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	14:08	3:37
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:00	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:52	0:08
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	24:07	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:03	3:38
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:22	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	18:13	1:27
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	17:21	0:15
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Ersson	21	18	3	.857	57:46	Loss
A. Kolosov	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+3	0	18:40	1:02
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	2	17:45	1:02
M. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	3	4	0	+1	7	16:51	0:00
M. Rossi	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:03	1:02
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:20	1:02
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:53	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	16:33	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	16:01	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:21	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:25	0:00
R. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:08	0:00
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3:23	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+2	0	27:02	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	25:06	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	1	1	3	2	4	+1	0	18:59	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:23	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	13:37	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	20:30	1:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Fleury	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBobby Brink MIN Faces PHI, his team until Mar 20260 SOG
HometownNoah Cates PHI Plays near home (born in Stillwater)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, MIN 3.3	PHI 1, MIN 4
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	PHI 29.2, MIN 28.7	PHI 22, MIN 22
Win chance	MIN 59%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	3	1.46	2	48%	2
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	1	0.97	1	33%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.8	1	0.90	0	32%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	2	0.49	0	22%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.2	0	0.48	0	16%	0
PHI J. Farabee	2.1	2	0.48	0	19%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	1	0.58	0	24%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.9	2	0.68	1	26%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.8	1	0.46	1	9%	1
PHI M. Michkov	1.7	4	0.73	0	22%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.7	0	0.53	0	12%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.7	0	0.74	1	19%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.52	0	19%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	0	0.35	0	18%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.6	0	0.44	0	15%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	3	0.40	1	8%	0
PHI S. Laughton	1.5	1	0.37	0	14%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.5	1	0.63	1	10%	0
PHI C. York	1.4	2	0.34	0	8%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.4	1	0.43	0	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	0	0.36	0	13%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	1	0.28	0	5%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.3	0	0.26	1	12%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.3	4	0.24	0	3%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.22	0	3%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	3	0.34	1	8%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	3	0.44	1	18%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.1	3	0.31	0	11%	0
PHI R. Poehling	1.1	1	0.29	1	12%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.0	1	0.20	1	5%	0
MIN R. Johnson	0.9	0	0.13	0	7%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.9	1	0.12	0	8%	0
MIN J. Lauko	0.8	0	0.23	0	10%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.8	1	0.21	1	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.8	0	0.26	0	4%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	0	0.20	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.