Game Recap: PHI 5, NJD 3, November 29, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI5

FinalSat, Nov 29, 2025Every game that night

NJD3

PHI beat NJD 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.44 expected goals to 2.63. O. Tippett led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Michkov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Vladar stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	3	1	5
NJD	1	1	1	3

1st 5:18PHIO. Tippett0.17 xG
1st 12:09NJDS. Nemec0.10 xG
2nd 0:53PHIM. Michkov0.25 xG
2nd 3:16PHIM. Michkov0.16 xG
2nd 13:03PHIT. Zegras0.20 xG
2nd 19:33NJDT. MeierPP0.03 xG
3rd 6:28NJDD. Mercer0.08 xG
3rd 19:11PHIO. TippettEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

PHINJD

31Shots on goal32

3.44Expected goals2.63

48Shot attempts75

275v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play1/4

20Hits20

23Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways16

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 3.44 xGNJD 2.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI32 on goal, 5 scored

NJD32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Tippett	RW	2	1	3	4	2	2	+2	0	15:34	1:05
T. Konecny	RW	0	2	2	2	1	2	+2	0	17:27	2:41
T. Zegras	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:06	2:41
M. Michkov	RW	2	0	2	6	1	0	+1	2	12:57	0:58
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	19:00	0:02
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	4	3	+1	2	17:29	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:57	2:39
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	16:15	2:28
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	13:12	0:52
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:45	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:08	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:25	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	24:52	1:16
C. York	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	23:10	2:16
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	0	19:50	0:02
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	2	5	+1	0	19:12	0:02
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:29	0:53
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	32	29	3	.906	60:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	-2	0	20:52	6:16
D. Mercer	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	18:49	4:24
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	23:52	5:52
T. Meier	RW	1	0	1	5	6	0	-1	0	22:11	5:45
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:18	0:08
A. Gritsyuk	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:36	1:22
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:20	1:24
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	12:06	0:20
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:04	0:12
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:20	0:00
S. Noesen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:14	1:15
J. Lammikko	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:07	0:00
S. Nemec	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	-4	2	20:16	2:55
D. Hamilton	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	25:35	4:23
L. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-3	0	22:01	3:09
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	20:37	0:00
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	14:24	0:00
C. White	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	31	27	4	.871	59:47	Loss
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett14:06C. Dvorak14:02T. Zegras12:25

Line 2T. Konecny13:48T. Foerster12:26N. Cates11:51

Line 3S. Couturier12:38M. Michkov11:59B. Brink10:52

Line 4G. Hathaway10:08N. Grebenkin9:25R. Abols10:45

Pair 1T. Sanheim18:31C. York17:06

Pair 2J. Drysdale17:20E. Andrae15:25

Pair 3N. Seeler15:38E. Zamula13:05

NJD

Line 1N. Hischier16:01T. Meier16:09J. Bratt14:17

Line 2C. Brown13:31C. Glass11:24P. Cotter11:46

Line 3O. Palat11:30D. Mercer12:23A. Gritsyuk12:01

Line 4L. Glendening8:42J. Lammikko8:07S. Noesen8:57

Pair 1D. Hamilton18:54J. Siegenthaler18:23

Pair 2L. Hughes17:03S. Nemec16:32

Pair 3B. Dillon13:19C. White12:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.7, NJD 3.2	PHI 5, NJD 3
Total goals	5.9	8
Shots on goal	PHI 25.2, NJD 27.0	PHI 31, NJD 32
Win chance	NJD 59%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD T. Meier	3.0	5	0.83	1	34%	1
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	3	0.64	0	17%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.3	4	0.53	3	23%	2
NJD J. Bratt	2.3	2	1.02	2	27%	0
NJD N. Hischier	2.3	2	0.94	1	33%	0
NJD A. Gritsyuk	2.2	2	0.47	0	19%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.0	2	0.70	2	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.0	2	0.64	2	22%	1
PHI M. Michkov	2.0	6	0.56	2	21%	2
PHI T. Foerster	1.8	2	0.50	0	25%	0
NJD L. Hughes	1.8	4	0.65	0	9%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.8	5	0.60	2	27%	1
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.48	0	15%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	0	0.38	1	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.47	0	18%	0
NJD C. Brown	1.5	0	0.46	0	18%	0
NJD S. Nemec	1.4	3	0.45	1	12%	1
PHI C. Dvorak	1.4	3	0.44	1	17%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.3	3	0.42	0	16%	0
NJD C. Glass	1.3	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NJD S. Noesen	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
PHI E. Andrae	1.2	1	0.22	0	3%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.2	1	0.33	0	7%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	1	0.36	1	7%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.1	0	0.30	0	16%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	2	0.19	0	3%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.1	1	0.16	0	9%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.1	2	0.35	0	15%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.7	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NJD J. Lammikko	0.7	2	0.16	0	8%	0
NJD L. Glendening	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	1	0.18	0	3%	0
NJD C. White	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.5	0	0.17	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.