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Game Recap
PHI5
NJD1
PHI beat NJD 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.73 expected goals to 2.64. T. Zegras led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Vladar stopped 23 of 24.
Team Stats
PHINJD
20Shots on goal24
1.73Expected goals2.64
26Shot attempts64
145v5 shots on goal17
1/2Power play0/3
15Hits17
15Blocked shots3
4Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways18
1Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.73 xGNJD 2.64 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:50 | 1:30 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:19 | 1:25 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:47 |
| P. Martone | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:14 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:52 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:56 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 1:54 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:25 | 1:19 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Bump | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:11 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:17 |
| N. Seeler | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Ristolainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:34 | 1:49 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:11 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Glass | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:28 |
| L. Hameenaho | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:00 | 0:37 |
| J. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:44 | 3:51 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:05 | 3:53 |
| J. Bratt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:07 | 3:14 |
| T. Meier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:16 | 2:47 |
| N. Hischier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 3:16 |
| D. Mercer | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:38 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:00 |
| P. Cotter | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:02 |
| B. Halonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:16 | 0:02 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:02 |
| J. Siegenthaler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:02 |
| L. Hughes | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:09 | 3:40 |
| J. Kovacevic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:21 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:00 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Markstrom | 19 | 15 | 4 | .789 | 58:04 | Loss |
| J. Allen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Konecny14:05P. Martone14:17C. Dvorak14:01
Line 2S. Couturier12:56D. Barkey13:00L. Glendening10:39
Line 3T. Zegras12:20T. Foerster11:19O. Tippett11:07
Line 4M. Michkov11:15A. Bump10:47N. Cates10:08
Pair 1R. Ristolainen17:14T. Sanheim18:54
Pair 2C. York18:40J. Drysdale16:25
NJD
Line 2T. Meier13:41D. Mercer13:31N. Hischier11:23
Line 3N. Bjugstad11:50C. Glass11:43L. Hameenaho9:10
Line 4P. Cotter11:45M. McLaughlin9:28B. Halonen10:14
Pair 1J. Kovacevic18:02L. Hughes18:25
Pair 2J. Siegenthaler16:05D. Hamilton15:12
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.8, NJD 3.2 | PHI 5, NJD 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 24.6, NJD 27.7 | PHI 20, NJD 24 |
| Win chance | NJD 57% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD J. Hughes | 3.6 | 5 | 1.30 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NJD T. Meier | 3.1 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD N. Hischier | 2.4 | 3 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.1 | 0 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NJD J. Bratt | 2.0 | 2 | 0.95 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hughes | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD C. Brown | 1.8 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 1.8 | 2 | 0.65 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.7 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| PHI R. Ristolainen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD L. Hameenaho | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI A. Bump | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bjugstad | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| NJD J. Kovacevic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI L. Glendening | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD J. Siegenthaler | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NJD M. McLaughlin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NJD P. Cotter | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Halonen | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.