Game Recap: PHI 1, NYI 3, January 24, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PHI1

FinalFri, Jan 24, 2025Every game that night

NYI3

NYI beat PHI 3-1, with the chances close: 2.05 expected goals to 2.54. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Pulock had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Sorokin stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	0	0	1
NYI	2	1	0	3

1st 14:14PHIT. Foerster0.11 xG
1st 17:08NYIA. Duclair0.15 xG
1st 18:03NYIB. Horvat0.16 xG
2nd 13:56NYIB. Nelson0.06 xG

Team Stats

PHINYI

30Shots on goal27

2.54Expected goals2.05

66Shot attempts56

285v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/3

25Hits34

11Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways7

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.54 xGNYI 2.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI30 on goal, 1 scored

NYI27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	19:24	1:11
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	17:51	1:12
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	19:22	1:18
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:10	0:00
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:45	0:49
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:42	0:39
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:20	0:48
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:11	0:42
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	13:48	0:00
A. Richard	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	12:46	1:21
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	10:09	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	7:45	0:00
E. Johnson	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	13:03	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-3	0	24:07	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	22:40	0:31
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	22:27	1:29
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	18:27	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Fedotov	27	24	3	.889	56:51	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	2	15:50	3:09
K. Palmieri	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+1	0	15:16	2:37
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	4	3	2	+1	0	21:34	3:37
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:28	3:18
A. Duclair	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:13	2:46
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	3	5	2	+1	0	19:59	3:14
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:45	2:23
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:44	2:46
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:53	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:30	0:04
A. Romanov	D	0	1	1	0	7	4	+1	0	23:41	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	20:59	0:05
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	+1	0	21:38	2:37
I. George	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:46	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	16:49	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:15	3:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	30	29	1	.967	59:58	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.5, NYI 3.1	PHI 1, NYI 3
Total goals	5.6	4
Shots on goal	PHI 27.0, NYI 27.5	PHI 30, NYI 27
Win chance	NYI 61%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.8	4	0.87	1	35%	1
PHI O. Tippett	2.8	1	0.60	0	25%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.5	2	0.97	1	26%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	3	0.72	0	31%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.5	2	0.89	2	36%	1
PHI T. Konecny	2.2	2	0.81	1	28%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	1.9	0	0.68	2	28%	0
PHI M. Frost	1.9	2	0.54	0	18%	0
PHI M. Michkov	1.8	2	0.54	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.7	2	0.42	0	9%	0
PHI J. Farabee	1.7	2	0.38	0	16%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.6	1	0.42	1	20%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.6	3	0.46	0	17%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	1	0.42	1	6%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.5	3	0.26	0	4%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	2	0.35	0	11%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	1	0.58	1	25%	1
PHI B. Brink	1.4	1	0.42	0	15%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	2	0.51	0	18%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	4	0.43	0	9%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	2	0.31	0	7%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.3	0	0.36	1	6%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	1	0.27	0	4%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	1.1	0	0.25	0	11%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	1	0.49	0	21%	0
PHI A. Richard	1.0	3	0.42	0	15%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	2	0.25	0	12%	0
NYI P. Engvall	0.9	1	0.28	0	12%	0
PHI E. Johnson	0.9	1	0.13	1	4%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.24	0	5%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.8	1	0.32	0	7%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NYI I. George	0.6	2	0.18	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.