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Game Recap
PHI8
NYR5
PHI beat NYR 8-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 2.70. M. Zibanejad led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). A. Kolosov stopped 24 of 29.
Team Stats
PHINYR
30Shots on goal29
3.77Expected goals2.70
45Shot attempts62
245v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/3
29Hits22
18Blocked shots7
16Penalty minutes0
17Giveaways21
4Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 3.77 xGNYR 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Foerster | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 15:24 | 1:08 |
| S. Couturier | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:11 |
| R. Poehling | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:51 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:48 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:53 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:05 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:10 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:06 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | +1 | 10 | 14:17 | 0:01 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:46 | 0:01 |
| K. Dorwart | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 11:10 | 0:49 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:01 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | +2 | 2 | 23:49 | 0:01 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +4 | 0 | 27:38 | 0:01 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:18 | 0:54 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Ersson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 3:13 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:27 | 3:32 |
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:26 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:45 | 2:04 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:27 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:21 | 3:40 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 2:16 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:05 | 2:26 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:04 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:15 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:21 | 3:05 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:28 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:41 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 28 | 22 | 6 | .786 | 58:02 | Loss |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, NYR 3.4 | PHI 8, NYR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 13 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 26.7, NYR 27.0 | PHI 30, NYR 29 |
| Win chance | NYR 62% | PHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.9 | 2 | 0.81 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 1 | 1.26 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 2.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.4 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.2 | 4 | 0.47 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.2 | 3 | 0.86 | 4 | 28% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 2.0 | 4 | 0.52 | 3 | 23% | 3 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.9 | 4 | 1.11 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.7 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 0 | 0.50 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI R. Poehling | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 2 | 0.21 | 3 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI J. Pelletier | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.