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Game Recap
PHI2
FinalThu, Nov 5, 2026Every game that night
NYR3

NYR beat PHI 3-2, with the chances close: 3.04 expected goals to 2.70. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). D. Garand stopped 23 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PHI0202
NYR1023
  1. 1st 4:39NYRG. Perreault0.17 xG
  2. 2nd 10:10PHIS. Benoit0.00 xG
  3. 2nd 12:09PHIN. Acciari0.24 xG
  4. 3rd 13:52NYRP. DorofeyevPP0.11 xG
  5. 3rd 15:21NYRT. Kartye0.09 xG

Team Stats

PHINYR
25Shots on goal28
2.70Expected goals3.04
53Shot attempts52
245v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play1/2
17Hits20
11Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways13
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.70 xGNYR 3.04 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdNYR goal, 4:39PHI goal, 10:10PHI goal, 12:09NYR goal, 13:52NYR goal, 15:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI25 on goal, 2 scored
NYR27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. FoersterRW011120+1017:130:51
D. BarkeyC0110400214:541:09
N. AcciariC101210+1012:580:00
T. ZegrasC000300-1019:481:09
C. DvorakC000100-1019:430:45
T. KonecnyRW0002100017:220:51
M. MichkovRW000000-1015:561:15
S. CouturierC0000110015:030:00
N. CatesLW000100+1012:490:02
O. TippettRW0004210012:450:49
P. MartoneRW0001200011:511:07
C. KnubleRW0001100011:130:00
J. DrysdaleD0111020026:231:09
S. BenoitD101112+1015:500:00
T. SanheimD000302+1021:320:02
O. BonkD000101-1019:120:51
C. YorkD000200-1018:250:00
N. SeelerD0001220215:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Woll28253.89358:43Loss
D. Vladar000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. ZibanejadC011121-1021:581:53
T. KartyeLW101230+2020:060:48
G. PerreaultRW101410+1018:211:44
J. MillerC011321+2018:160:55
O. BjorkstrandRW0113010015:560:46
P. DorofeyevRW101400-1015:021:51
W. CuylleLW000030-1017:510:55
A. LafrenièreLW000120-1017:481:44
N. LabaC0000210011:530:00
E. TolvanenRW000110-1011:130:00
J. ChmelarRW000001007:020:00
M. RempeC000010005:370:00
A. FoxD0221030025:282:39
M. PetterssonD011101+1021:230:00
V. GavrikovD0002020024:210:00
B. SchneiderD0002200219:170:00
A. SmitsD0002100013:220:00
S. MorrowD000100-1013:210:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Garand25232.92059:45Win
J. Reimer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1C. Dvorak17:40T. Zegras17:22T. Konecny15:14
Line 2T. Foerster14:18N. Cates12:23M. Michkov13:24
Line 3S. Couturier12:16D. Barkey13:30N. Acciari11:20
Line 4C. Knuble11:06P. Martone10:44O. Tippett11:53
Pair 1T. Sanheim19:19J. Drysdale23:12
Pair 2C. York17:02O. Bonk18:06
Pair 3N. Seeler15:41S. Benoit14:35

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad17:42A. Lafrenière16:02P. Dorofeyev13:11
Line 2T. Kartye16:53J. Miller15:49G. Perreault16:35
Line 3W. Cuylle15:47O. Bjorkstrand14:55E. Tolvanen10:23
Line 4N. Laba11:38J. Chmelar7:02M. Rempe5:37
Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:53A. Fox20:46
Pair 2M. Pettersson19:39B. Schneider19:17
Pair 3S. Morrow13:21A. Smits12:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 24 overs hit (46%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NYR A. Lafrenière2.5+140-1751Under
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+140-1521Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-130+1104Over
NYR A. Fox1.5-105-1181Under
NYR B. Schneider1.5+140-1792Over
PHI C. Dvorak1.5+115-1451Under
PHI D. Barkey1.5+160-1950Under
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5+100–1Under
NYR G. Perreault1.5-125+1004Over
PHI J. Drysdale1.5+120-1451Under
NYR J. Miller1.5-135+1253Over
PHI M. Michkov1.5-146+1150Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.5+130–3Over
PHI O. Bonk1.5+150-1701Under
PHI O. Tippett1.5-180+1504Over
PHI P. Martone1.5-105-1201Under
PHI S. Couturier1.5+105–0Under
PHI T. Foerster1.5-140+1201Under
NYR T. Kartye1.5+107-1252Over
PHI T. Konecny1.5-130+1052Over
PHI T. Sanheim1.5-102-1253Over
PHI T. Zegras1.5-135+1073Over
NYR V. Gavrikov1.5+120-1502Over
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-160+1400Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePHI 2.7, NYR 3.2PHI 2, NYR 3
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalPHI 24.4, NYR 25.8PHI 25, NYR 28
Win chanceNYR 58%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.640.70133%1
PHI O. Tippett2.240.53024%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.210.85127%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.010.71026%0
NYR W. Cuylle2.000.54024%0
NYR J. Miller2.030.90127%0
PHI M. Michkov1.900.69025%0
PHI T. Zegras1.930.73024%0
PHI C. Knuble1.910.39018%0
PHI P. Martone1.810.57020%0
PHI T. Konecny1.820.72024%0
PHI T. Foerster1.710.43122%0
NYR G. Perreault1.740.53122%1
NYR A. Fox1.610.91213%0
PHI C. Dvorak1.610.54019%0
PHI J. Drysdale1.510.4319%0
PHI T. Sanheim1.530.41010%0
NYR T. Kartye1.520.51117%1
PHI S. Couturier1.400.40014%0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.430.40117%0
NYR E. Tolvanen1.410.35016%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.320.3407%0
NYR B. Schneider1.220.2405%0
PHI O. Bonk1.210.4107%0
PHI C. York1.220.2707%0
PHI N. Cates1.110.38014%0
PHI N. Acciari1.120.24112%1
PHI D. Barkey1.000.44114%0
NYR S. Morrow1.010.2304%0
PHI N. Seeler1.010.1603%0
NYR J. Chmelar0.800.1608%0
PHI S. Benoit0.810.0912%1
NYR M. Pettersson0.810.2714%0
NYR N. Laba0.700.25010%0
NYR M. Rempe0.600.1207%0
NYR A. Smits0.520.1003%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.