Game Recap: PHI 1, OTT 2, October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

PHI1

FinalThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

OTT2

OTT beat PHI 2-1, with the chances close: 2.19 expected goals to 2.22. OTT outshot PHI 33 to 23. C. Giroux had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. L. Ullmark stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	1	0	0	1
OTT	1	1	0	2

1st 0:29PHIT. Foerster0.03 xG
1st 7:57OTTM. Amadio0.09 xG
2nd 3:05OTTO. Lycksell0.21 xG

Team Stats

PHIOTT

23Shots on goal33

2.22Expected goals2.19

50Shot attempts56

165v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play0/5

21Hits17

16Blocked shots16

12Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways11

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.22 xGOTT 2.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI23 on goal, 1 scored

OTT33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	21:23	3:26
S. Couturier	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	2	21:13	3:37
T. Foerster	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	17:07	2:28
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	-2	0	17:43	2:08
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:25	2:01
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:05	0:00
M. Michkov	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	14:50	3:13
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	2	14:21	2:34
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	14:08	2:13
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	8:26	0:00
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:12	0:00
R. Abols	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	6:06	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	25:46	2:31
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	-1	0	24:11	0:08
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:53	3:23
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	17:49	0:11
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:51	0:00
E. Zamula	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	33	31	2	.939	58:12	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	18:51	4:49
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	14:23	0:00
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	11:44	5:15
O. Lycksell	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	7:37	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	22:52	3:08
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:46	4:53
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	17:54	4:01
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:33	4:32
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:49	5:08
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:57	4:25
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:37	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:13	2:24
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	20:44	0:12
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	17:14	0:13
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	26:55	4:54
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	22:43	5:01
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:13	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	10:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1T. Konecny14:22O. Tippett14:08S. Couturier13:34

Line 2B. Brink11:55N. Cates10:44T. Foerster11:14

Line 3C. Dvorak9:43M. Michkov10:02T. Zegras10:46

Line 4R. Abols6:06N. Grebenkin7:12G. Hathaway5:05

Pair 1N. Seeler14:41J. Drysdale18:22

Pair 2T. Sanheim15:20C. York15:43

Pair 3N. Juulsen8:37E. Zamula10:46

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio12:48S. Pinto13:23C. Giroux11:47

Line 2T. Stützle11:27D. Cozens11:17D. Batherson10:32

Line 3D. Perron11:20R. Greig11:01N. Cousins10:37

Line 4L. Eller6:26F. Zetterlund6:49O. Lycksell7:36

Pair 1N. Jensen16:43T. Chabot17:17

Pair 2J. Sanderson13:18A. Zub13:50

Pair 3T. Kleven11:16N. Matinpalo10:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Ersson OTT Faces PHI, his team until May 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.8, OTT 3.2	PHI 1, OTT 2
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	PHI 25.2, OTT 27.5	PHI 23, OTT 33
Win chance	OTT 58%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.6	2	0.60	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.3	4	0.73	0	24%	0
PHI S. Couturier	2.2	1	0.66	1	19%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	0	0.70	0	24%	0
PHI T. Konecny	2.1	3	0.79	1	27%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	3	1.01	0	29%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.66	0	12%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.82	0	26%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.0	4	0.70	0	28%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	1	0.57	1	26%	1
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	2	0.62	0	13%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	2	0.64	0	21%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	1	0.39	0	17%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.6	1	0.52	0	19%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.6	3	0.43	0	10%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	1	0.55	0	23%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	0	0.49	0	18%	0
PHI B. Brink	1.4	2	0.57	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.4	4	0.64	1	21%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.3	1	0.40	0	15%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.2	0	0.31	1	13%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.2	0	0.27	0	4%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	3	0.41	1	19%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.1	0	0.36	0	8%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	1	0.19	0	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	2	0.27	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	2	0.28	1	6%	0
PHI C. York	1.0	1	0.30	0	6%	0
PHI R. Abols	1.0	1	0.20	0	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
OTT O. Lycksell	0.9	3	0.28	1	8%	1
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.12	0	4%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	1	0.26	1	5%	0
PHI E. Zamula	0.6	0	0.21	0	4%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.08	0	2%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.5	0	0.16	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.