Game Recap: PHI 4, PIT 3 (SO), March 7, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI4

Final/SOSat, Mar 7, 2026Every game that night

PIT3

PHI beat PIT 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 3.06. R. Rakell led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Dewar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Vladar stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PHI	1	2	0	1	4
PIT	1	2	0	0	3

1st 3:00PITT. NovakPP0.09 xG
1st 3:54PHIO. Tippett0.19 xG
2nd 3:38PITR. Rakell0.06 xG
2nd 4:46PHIA. Bump0.12 xG
2nd 5:45PITE. Karlsson0.03 xG
2nd 10:03PHID. Barkey0.32 xG

Team Stats

PHIPIT

16Shots on goal23

2.27Expected goals3.06

39Shot attempts63

145v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play1/6

26Hits19

15Blocked shots5

15Penalty minutes9

12Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.27 xGPIT 3.06 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI15 on goal, 3 scored

PIT22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	19:19	1:58
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:15	2:31
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:46	1:50
O. Tippett	RW	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	16:25	1:44
A. Bump	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:07	1:55
D. Barkey	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:41	1:37
N. Grebenkin	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	10:30	0:08
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	20:47	2:16
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:55	0:13
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	11:44	0:09
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	10:19	0:11
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	2	9:51	0:00
C. York	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	30:48	1:57
T. Sanheim	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	28:26	1:14
R. Ristolainen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	23:26	0:14
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+2	7	22:18	1:54
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:27	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:36	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	23	20	3	.870	65:00	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	22:06	7:22
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	21:02	6:26
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	24:19	7:19
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:10	3:59
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	15:22	4:01
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	12:35	3:59
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:51	6:19
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	15:16	4:07
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:02	0:05
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	0	14:02	0:02
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	13:27	0:04
A. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	5	7:48	0:03
E. Karlsson	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	26:12	7:37
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	23:55	3:52
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	17:48	0:07
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:38	0:03
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:32	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	16	13	3	.813	65:00	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett14:03T. Zegras14:05C. Grundstrom9:51

Line 2M. Michkov13:31D. Barkey13:04N. Cates12:11

Line 3C. Dvorak13:12A. Bump13:17N. Grebenkin10:22

Line 4S. Couturier9:46G. Hathaway7:56L. Glendening8:10

Pair 1C. York21:05J. Drysdale19:04

Pair 2R. Ristolainen19:02T. Sanheim18:58

Pair 3N. Juulsen7:54E. Andrae7:04

PIT

Line 1B. Rust14:24R. Rakell13:17E. Chinakhov13:41

Line 2C. Dewar11:57B. Lizotte12:04N. Acciari12:25

Line 3A. Mantha12:23J. Brazeau11:21T. Novak12:07

Line 4V. Koivunen8:36A. Hayes7:45B. Kindel9:08

Pair 1K. Letang18:26S. Girard16:55

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon16:59E. Karlsson16:07

Pair 3C. Clifton12:09R. Shea12:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI First game back in Pittsburgh, his team until Apr 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.6, PIT 3.5	PHI 4, PIT 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	PHI 23.6, PIT 28.1	PHI 16, PIT 23
Win chance	PIT 63%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.7	1	0.60	1	26%	1
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	4	0.80	2	29%	1
PIT B. Rust	2.5	2	0.89	1	33%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.2	1	0.59	1	23%	0
PHI T. Zegras	2.1	2	0.71	1	25%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.1	3	0.56	2	24%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.70	1	14%	1
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	1	0.52	0	21%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.9	1	0.60	0	21%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.8	0	0.74	0	26%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.7	1	0.44	0	13%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.7	0	0.28	0	5%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.59	1	22%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.6	2	0.45	0	9%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	0	0.47	1	17%	0
PIT A. Hayes	1.5	0	0.34	0	16%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	1	0.46	1	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	4	0.38	0	16%	0
PHI C. Grundstrom	1.3	1	0.21	0	13%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	2	0.40	0	9%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	2	0.40	0	10%	0
PHI C. York	1.3	0	0.34	1	8%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.1	3	0.27	0	12%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.0	2	0.32	1	10%	1
PIT V. Koivunen	1.0	0	0.27	1	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	0	0.42	0	16%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.9	0	0.31	0	6%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.9	0	0.30	0	6%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.25	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.24	0	3%	0
PHI N. Grebenkin	0.7	0	0.23	1	9%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.6	0	0.15	0	2%	0
PHI N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.12	0	2%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.5	0	0.08	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.