Game Recap: PHI 2, PIT 3, April 27, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI2

FinalMon, Apr 27, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

PIT3

PIT beat PHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.36 expected goals to 2.09. R. Ristolainen led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Bump had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Silovs stopped 18 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PHI	0	2	0	2
PIT	1	2	0	3

1st 2:45PITE. Soderblom0.07 xG
2nd 3:17PITC. Dewar0.12 xG
2nd 3:29PHIA. Bump0.08 xG
2nd 15:06PHIT. Sanheim0.01 xG
2nd 17:12PITK. Letang0.01 xG

Team Stats

PHIPIT

20Shots on goal21

2.09Expected goals3.36

58Shot attempts58

165v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/2

42Hits37

16Blocked shots15

10Penalty minutes8

11Giveaways22

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.09 xGPIT 3.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI20 on goal, 2 scored

PIT20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Konecny	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	-1	4	19:32	2:27
N. Cates	LW	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	16:19	1:28
A. Bump	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	0	0	15:29	0:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	19:29	2:36
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	18:43	2:32
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	-2	0	18:01	1:19
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	16:11	1:32
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:32	2:33
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:09	1:10
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	11:15	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:42	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	4	8:17	0:00
R. Ristolainen	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	23:21	2:06
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	1	0	4	+1	0	23:30	0:22
C. York	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	22:53	0:12
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	22:22	1:43
N. Seeler	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	11:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	21	18	3	.857	58:02	Loss
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	20:13	3:11
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	13:49	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	12:28	0:34
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	10:50	0:21
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	0	20:59	3:12
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	20:37	3:14
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	0	4	3	-1	0	15:45	0:00
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14:25	1:26
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:04	2:13
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:00	0:48
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	11:49	0:49
K. Letang	D	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	24:40	0:42
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	21:03	0:00
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	17:03	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	26:23	3:18
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	21:41	0:12
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	20	18	2	.900	59:48	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1O. Tippett15:56T. Zegras14:55D. Barkey11:59

Line 2T. Konecny15:34C. Dvorak13:22P. Martone11:59

Line 3T. Foerster13:01A. Bump14:21N. Cates12:46

Line 4S. Couturier8:50G. Hathaway8:05L. Glendening8:29

Pair 1C. York20:07J. Drysdale19:22

Pair 2R. Ristolainen18:57T. Sanheim19:40

Pair 3N. Seeler10:47E. Andrae11:00

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:43R. Rakell16:58B. Rust14:21

Line 2E. Malkin12:47T. Novak11:51E. Chinakhov11:12

Line 3N. Acciari11:45B. Lizotte11:28C. Dewar9:54

Line 4E. Soderblom10:17B. Kindel10:48A. Mantha11:42

Pair 1K. Letang20:42S. Girard19:03

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon18:48E. Karlsson21:29

Pair 3R. Shea14:25I. Solovyov5:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNoel Acciari PHI First game back in Pittsburgh, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 2.9, PIT 3.2	PHI 2, PIT 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	PHI 24.6, PIT 25.7	PHI 20, PIT 21
Win chance	PIT 55%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI P. Martone	2.7	1	0.71	0	22%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.5	5	0.82	0	31%	0
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	1	0.62	0	26%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	0	1.08	2	34%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	2	0.86	0	32%	0
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	0	0.92	0	28%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.2	2	0.78	0	16%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.9	0	0.53	0	22%	0
PHI T. Foerster	1.9	1	0.55	0	26%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.9	0	0.77	1	25%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	0	0.68	0	22%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.7	1	0.59	0	19%	0
PHI R. Ristolainen	1.6	1	0.41	2	7%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.5	1	0.59	1	24%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.5	2	0.39	0	16%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	0	0.45	0	14%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.52	0	20%	0
PHI N. Cates	1.5	0	0.53	1	17%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.4	1	0.44	1	9%	1
PHI A. Bump	1.3	4	0.47	1	17%	1
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.44	1	11%	1
PHI J. Drysdale	1.3	2	0.36	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.2	2	0.34	1	14%	1
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	2	0.27	1	13%	1
PHI C. York	1.1	2	0.29	0	6%	0
PHI N. Seeler	1.0	2	0.16	0	4%	0
PHI L. Glendening	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	0.9	1	0.35	1	14%	0
PHI D. Barkey	0.8	2	0.33	0	11%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.8	1	0.30	1	3%	0
PIT S. Girard	0.8	1	0.29	0	5%	0
PHI G. Hathaway	0.8	2	0.20	0	10%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.31	1	6%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.7	0	0.24	0	3%	0
PHI E. Andrae	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.