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Game Recap
PHI0
TBL3
TBL beat PHI 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.78. B. Hagel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TBL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 15:34TBLB. Hagel0.22 xG
- 2nd 16:00TBLA. Cirelli0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:45TBLB. HagelEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
PHITBL
20Shots on goal18
1.78Expected goals3.57
43Shot attempts45
195v5 shots on goal15
0/1Power play0/2
22Hits20
12Blocked shots10
9Penalty minutes7
9Giveaways17
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PHI 1.78 xGTBL 3.57 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Konecny | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:35 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:35 |
| T. Foerster | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:29 | 0:35 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:35 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Brink | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:17 | 0:00 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 26:10 | 0:35 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| E. Zamula | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:49 | 2:29 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:33 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:39 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 1:58 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:35 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:04 |
| D. James | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:41 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:04 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 1:35 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| C. Douglas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5:27 | 0:00 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:15 | 0:22 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:08 | 1:49 |
| J. Moser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 23:38 | 0:04 |
| C. D'Astous | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:24 | 1:02 |
| D. Carlile | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Santini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Johansson | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PHI
Line 1T. Zegras16:24C. Dvorak16:02O. Tippett14:03
Line 2T. Konecny16:42N. Cates15:38T. Foerster16:21
Line 3S. Couturier14:45B. Brink15:18M. Michkov13:43
Line 4G. Hathaway8:40R. Abols7:35N. Deslauriers6:17
Pair 1T. Sanheim21:37C. York21:49
Pair 2J. Drysdale19:06E. Andrae16:34
TBL
Line 1N. Kucherov18:29B. Hagel17:31A. Cirelli15:13
Line 2Z. Girgensons15:24N. Paul15:03Y. Gourde14:04
Line 3J. Guentzel15:29D. James15:31G. Goncalves12:06
Line 4O. Bjorkstrand9:46J. Finley7:36C. Douglas5:27
Pair 1D. Raddysh21:38J. Moser20:47
Pair 2C. D'Astous20:22E. Lilleberg20:00
Pair 3S. Santini12:45D. Carlile12:34
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI 2.6, TBL 3.4 | PHI 0, TBL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | PHI 25.0, TBL 26.2 | PHI 20, TBL 18 |
| Win chance | TBL 64% | TBL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 2 | 1.13 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| TBL N. Kucherov | 2.6 | 0 | 1.40 | 3 | 34% | 0 |
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.5 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.3 | 4 | 0.92 | 3 | 30% | 2 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.1 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.0 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PHI T. Foerster | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| TBL N. Paul | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| TBL O. Bjorkstrand | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.7 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 1.6 | 2 | 0.65 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PHI B. Brink | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| TBL Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL D. James | 1.1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.1 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL J. Moser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL C. D'Astous | 0.9 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Deslauriers | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL J. Finley | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL S. Santini | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PHI E. Zamula | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| TBL D. Carlile | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| TBL C. Douglas | 0.5 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.