Game Recap: PHI 3, VAN 1, November 9, 2026

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Game Recap

PHI3

FinalMon, Nov 9, 2026Every game that night

VAN1

PHI beat VAN 3-1, with the chances close: 2.48 expected goals to 2.03. C. Dvorak led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Sasson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Woll stopped 18 of 19.

Team Stats

PHIVAN

17Shots on goal19

2.48Expected goals2.03

49Shot attempts50

125v5 shots on goal15

1/2Power play1/5

18Hits19

14Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways13

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PHI 2.48 xGVAN 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PHI16 on goal, 2 scored

VAN19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	15:09	0:21
M. Michkov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:26	2:08
T. Konecny	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	2	14:01	0:22
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	2	10:45	0:00
S. Couturier	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:34	0:00
N. Cates	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	15:58	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	15:52	0:00
P. Martone	RW	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	15:38	1:47
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:30	2:08
T. Foerster	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
D. Barkey	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	12:34	1:46
O. Tippett	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	10:41	0:00
T. Sanheim	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	25:04	0:00
N. Seeler	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	16:43	0:00
C. York	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	23:22	0:00
J. Drysdale	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	21:35	1:54
O. Bonk	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:00	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:23	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Woll	19	18	1	.947	59:55	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	24:35	7:45
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	23:22	7:42
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	18:59	7:42
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	21:09	7:40
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	15:28	1:07
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:51	0:13
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	13:44	1:12
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	12:01	2:20
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	11:50	0:00
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:04	0:48
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	10:31	0:02
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:58	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	31:11	7:13
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	25:53	1:33
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	17:06	0:03
G. Brisebois	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17:02	0:12
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	12:15	0:14
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	8:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	16	14	2	.875	58:34	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PHI

Line 1M. Michkov13:13P. Martone13:46N. Cates11:36

Line 2T. Konecny13:18T. Foerster13:24T. Zegras12:59

Line 3S. Couturier11:52N. Acciari10:57D. Barkey10:48

Line 4C. Dvorak10:49O. Tippett10:01M. Bunting10:45

Pair 1C. York17:04O. Bonk17:22

Pair 2J. Drysdale17:19T. Sanheim17:55

Pair 3N. Seeler13:13D.Jiricek13:04

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser13:49E. Pettersson14:55J. Lekkerimäki11:17

Line 2D. O'Connor13:09L. Karlsson12:27M. Sasson11:21

Line 3M. Rossi9:41L. Ohgren10:16B. Gallagher10:29

Line 4A. Bains9:58P. Cotter13:26J. DeBrusk12:38

Pair 1Z. Buium23:18F. Hronek22:10

Pair 2J. Oleksiak15:15G. Brisebois15:32

Pair 3L. Schenn7:48E. Pettersson11:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 16 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+115	-140	4	Over
PHI O. Tippett	2.5	+118	-135	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-165	+136	1	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	1.5	-115	-105	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	+102	-125	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	-130	+105	2	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	+110	-120	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
PHI M. Michkov	1.5	-155	+130	2	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	+135	-155	1	Under
PHI P. Martone	1.5	-140	+120	4	Over
PHI T. Foerster	1.5	-175	+148	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	1.5	-140	+120	1	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	+125	-165	1	Under
PHI T. Zegras	1.5	-150	+128	1	Under

3 of 33 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+700	-900	0	Under
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+360	-400	0	Under
PHI C. York	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1400	–	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
VAN G. Brisebois	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+280	-300	1	Over
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+440	-600	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+460	-600	0	Under
VAN L. Schenn	0.5	+2800	-4000	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+390	-500	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
PHI N. Acciari	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
PHI N. Seeler	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
PHI S. Couturier	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+250	-380	1	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+800	-2000	1	Over
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+260	-310	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+165	-200	1	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+220	-265	2	Over
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+114	-135	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+200	-230	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+240	-250	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+250	-330	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+280	-325	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+154	-175	0	Under
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+132	-150	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+215	-275	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-132	+111	1	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+115	-130	2	Over
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+135	-160	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-113	+105	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+110	-135	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+110	-130	1	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+134	-150	0	Under
PHI N. Cates	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+100	-121	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+110	-132	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	-128	+110	1	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	-155	+125	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under

5 of 18 overs hit (28%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
PHI C. Dvorak	0.5	+380	-900	1	Over
PHI D. Barkey	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
PHI J. Drysdale	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+325	-500	1	Over
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
PHI M. Michkov	0.5	+360	-550	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
PHI O. Bonk	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
PHI O. Tippett	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
PHI P. Martone	0.5	+375	-600	0	Under
PHI T. Foerster	0.5	+310	-650	0	Under
PHI T. Konecny	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
PHI T. Zegras	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VAN L. Meriläinen	23.5	-107	-105	14	Under
PHI J. Woll	22.5	-105	-115	18	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
PHI C. York	1.5	-145	+105	2	Over
PHI T. Sanheim	1.5	-120	-115	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneBrock Boeser VAN 2 points from 500Not yet: 1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PHI 3.1, VAN 3.0	PHI 3, VAN 1
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	PHI 25.9, VAN 24.8	PHI 17, VAN 19
Win chance	PHI 51%	PHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PHI O. Tippett	2.4	0	0.60	0	26%	0
PHI M. Michkov	2.1	2	0.81	1	27%	0
PHI T. Foerster	2.0	0	0.55	0	26%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.0	1	0.66	1	26%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	4	0.52	0	24%	0
PHI T. Konecny	1.9	1	0.82	1	25%	1
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.9	2	0.56	1	20%	1
PHI P. Martone	1.9	4	0.62	0	21%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.7	1	0.79	1	24%	0
PHI T. Zegras	1.7	1	0.73	0	22%	0
PHI C. Dvorak	1.7	0	0.64	2	21%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	0	0.63	0	9%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.5	2	0.33	0	15%	0
PHI S. Couturier	1.5	0	0.48	0	15%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	0	0.46	0	18%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.33	0	16%	0
PHI J. Drysdale	1.4	0	0.52	0	11%	0
PHI T. Sanheim	1.3	1	0.47	1	11%	1
PHI N. Cates	1.3	1	0.46	0	16%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.2	1	0.43	0	15%	0
PHI N. Acciari	1.2	1	0.29	0	13%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.2	1	0.39	0	8%	0
PHI D. Barkey	1.1	0	0.52	0	16%	0
PHI O. Bonk	1.1	0	0.47	0	6%	0
PHI C. York	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	4	0.29	0	14%	0
VAN G. Brisebois	0.9	0	0.20	0	5%	0
VAN P. Cotter	0.9	0	0.32	0	15%	0
PHI N. Seeler	0.9	0	0.20	1	4%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.8	0	0.21	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.15	0	4%	0
VAN L. Schenn	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.