Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
PIT1
ANA5
ANA beat PIT 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.17 expected goals to 2.45. A. Killorn led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Killorn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Gibson stopped 31 of 32.
Team Stats
PITANA
32Shots on goal34
2.45Expected goals4.17
66Shot attempts55
245v5 shots on goal27
1/3Power play0/2
12Hits20
10Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways15
8Takeaways11
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.45 xGANA 4.17 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 3:28 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:45 | 4:19 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 1:04 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:56 | 4:07 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:27 | 2:23 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:32 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:46 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:17 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:12 | 0:34 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22:57 | 1:22 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:38 | 4:28 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:02 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 11:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 56:23 | Loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. McTavish | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:20 |
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:34 | 2:21 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:03 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:18 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:26 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 15:40 | 0:57 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:02 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:01 |
| J. Harkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +5 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Helleson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:17 | 2:30 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:52 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.1, ANA 2.9 | PIT 1, ANA 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 30.4, ANA 29.7 | PIT 32, ANA 34 |
| Win chance | PIT 53% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.9 | 0 | 1.13 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 0 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.5 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 0 | 0.91 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 2.0 | 4 | 0.62 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.0 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 1.9 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.9 | 5 | 0.62 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.7 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.4 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| ANA D. Helleson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.