Game Recap: PIT 0, BOS 1, January 11, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT0

FinalSun, Jan 11, 2026Every game that night

BOS1

BOS beat PIT 1-0, with the chances close: 2.60 expected goals to 2.20. PIT outshot BOS 27 to 19. T. Jeannot had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Korpisalo stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	0	0	0
BOS	1	0	0	1

1st 11:00BOSV. Arvidsson0.22 xG

Team Stats

PITBOS

27Shots on goal19

2.20Expected goals2.60

62Shot attempts55

265v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play0/6

18Hits15

17Blocked shots18

12Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways16

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.20 xGBOS 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT27 on goal, 0 scored

BOS19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	4	0	1	0	0	20:54	1:44
S. Crosby	C	3	0	2	0	0	20:28	2:05
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	0	2	17:12	1:52
A. Mantha	RW	0	2	1	0	0	15:34	0:30
B. Kindel	C	2	0	1	-1	0	15:34	1:47
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	1	0	0	12:39	0:00
C. Dewar	C	2	1	1	0	0	12:38	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	4	1	0	-1	4	12:08	0:50
E. Chinakhov	RW	3	0	1	0	0	11:50	0:47
T. Novak	C	1	0	0	-1	2	11:36	0:44
N. Acciari	C	0	0	1	0	0	11:12	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	1	1	1	0	0	10:19	0:00
K. Letang	D	1	5	2	0	0	23:37	0:48
E. Karlsson	D	1	1	0	-1	0	23:12	1:47
B. Kulak	D	3	0	2	0	4	20:26	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	1	1	3	-1	0	18:52	0:01
R. Shea	D	1	0	0	0	0	17:13	0:00
C. Clifton	D	0	6	0	0	0	14:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	19	18	1	.947	58:27	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	16:46	4:57
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	15:59	5:06
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	22:36	7:39
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	21:34	5:32
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:32	3:03
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:33	5:12
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:38	4:54
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:48	0:09
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	6	4	2	0	0	12:47	0:03
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	12:37	4:56
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:06	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:48	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:43	0:20
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	24:53	0:11
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	22:41	5:32
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:47	5:21
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:30	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	12:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby15:54R. Rakell15:22A. Mantha13:31

Line 2E. Malkin13:42K. Hayes10:19E. Chinakhov10:29

Line 3B. Kindel10:52T. Novak10:10J. Brazeau11:18

Line 4C. Dewar6:46B. Lizotte7:27N. Acciari5:46

Pair 1K. Letang18:39B. Kulak17:55

Pair 2E. Karlsson14:29P. Wotherspoon13:59

Pair 3R. Shea12:35C. Clifton10:07

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak13:26M. Khusnutdinov14:24E. Lindholm14:00

Line 2V. Arvidsson11:18P. Zacha11:53C. Mittelstadt10:22

Line 3S. Kuraly11:56M. Kastelic11:20T. Jeannot11:29

Line 4F. Minten8:00A. Steeves7:41M. Eyssimont5:48

Pair 1N. Zadorov20:38H. Jokiharju19:03

Pair 2C. McAvoy14:06J. Aspirot11:55

Pair 3A. Peeke11:58M. Lohrei10:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustin Brazeau PIT Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20254 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.2, BOS 3.2	PIT 0, BOS 1
Total goals	6.4	1
Shots on goal	PIT 29.0, BOS 27.0	PIT 27, BOS 19
Win chance	BOS 51%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	4	1.25	0	41%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.8	4	0.80	0	29%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.6	3	1.07	0	34%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	1	0.58	1	22%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.2	0	0.79	0	24%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.1	1	0.70	0	12%	0
PIT B. Kindel	1.9	2	0.41	0	15%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	1	0.45	0	8%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.7	1	0.62	0	21%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	0	0.60	0	10%	0
PIT A. Mantha	1.6	0	0.52	0	20%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	0	0.49	0	21%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	1.5	3	0.34	0	15%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.5	1	0.45	0	18%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.5	1	0.30	0	13%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.5	0	0.22	0	10%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	0	0.62	0	20%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.5	2	0.31	0	13%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.5	1	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	4	0.41	0	18%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.4	3	0.44	0	18%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	0	0.53	1	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.33	0	8%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.2	3	0.22	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	0	0.23	0	11%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	6	0.33	0	14%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	0	0.38	0	15%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.34	0	6%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	1	0.23	1	4%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.24	0	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	0	0.17	0	7%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	1	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.