PIT beat BUF 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.27 expected goals to 4.41. BUF outshot PIT 42 to 19. C. Glass led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Cozens had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 40 of 42.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 2.27 xGBUF 4.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 4:30 |
| C. Glass | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:31 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:17 | 4:08 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 3:42 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:01 | 0:48 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 4:15 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 15:45 | 1:40 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:01 | 0:42 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:07 | 4:09 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:55 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| O. Pickering | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 42 | 40 | 2 | .952 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:10 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:46 | 3:54 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 3:15 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:58 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:42 | 3:10 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:05 | 3:58 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 16:23 | 3:59 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:01 |
| T. Kozak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:04 | 0:02 |
| O. Power | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:38 | 2:50 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:13 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 27:56 | 4:20 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 56:29 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.1, BUF 3.2 | PIT 5, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.2, BUF 29.5 | PIT 19, BUF 42 |
| Win chance | BUF 53% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 7 | 1.05 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 2 | 1.16 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.9 | 2 | 0.89 | 2 | 32% | 1 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 5 | 0.81 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.2 | 6 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 1.9 | 0 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.6 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF T. Kozak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT O. Pickering | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.