Game Recap: PIT 5, CAR 6 (OT), March 18, 2026

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Game Recap

PIT5

Final/OTWed, Mar 18, 2026Every game that night

CAR6

CAR beat PIT 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.04 expected goals to 3.83. CAR outshot PIT 44 to 35. E. Karlsson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Walker had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. F. Andersen stopped 30 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
PIT	0	1	4	0	5
CAR	1	1	3	1	6

1st 9:34CARJ. MartinookSH0.18 xG
2nd 9:57PITS. Crosby0.11 xG
2nd 16:51CARJ. Blake0.25 xG
3rd 0:59PITE. KarlssonPP0.15 xG
3rd 3:27CART. Hall0.22 xG
3rd 7:16PITB. Rust0.15 xG
3rd 12:59CARL. StankovenPP0.20 xG
3rd 14:46PITE. Karlsson0.06 xG
3rd 15:09PITB. Kindel0.29 xG
3rd 17:09CARK. Miller0.04 xG
OT 4:31CARS. Walker0.17 xG

Team Stats

PITCAR

35Shots on goal44

3.83Expected goals5.04

51Shot attempts81

275v5 shots on goal37

1/4Power play1/2

24Hits26

16Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes10

16Giveaways16

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.83 xGCAR 5.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT34 on goal, 5 scored

CAR43 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Rakell	RW	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	20:46	4:42
S. Crosby	C	1	1	2	4	2	1	0	4	18:33	2:16
E. Malkin	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	21:43	4:41
B. Rust	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	18:33	4:47
A. Mantha	RW	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	17:24	4:09
B. Kindel	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:36	2:17
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:44	2:15
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:49	2:21
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	13:18	0:00
C. Dewar	C	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	0	12:53	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:57	0:34
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	9:59	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	2	1	3	4	0	1	0	0	24:02	4:27
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	18:54	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	12:39	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	25:28	2:34
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	21:59	0:02
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	+1	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	44	38	6	.864	64:31	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Blake	RW	1	2	3	3	0	1	+1	0	18:06	1:17
N. Ehlers	LW	0	3	3	1	1	0	+2	0	17:50	1:57
T. Hall	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	15:38	1:15
L. Stankoven	C	1	1	2	5	1	0	+2	0	15:19	1:15
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	-2	0	20:56	1:27
S. Jarvis	C	0	1	1	5	1	0	-2	0	20:03	1:27
J. Staal	C	0	1	1	0	4	2	+1	2	18:00	0:45
J. Martinook	LW	1	0	1	5	2	0	+2	0	16:38	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-3	4	18:02	1:26
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8:39	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:55	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:51	0:00
S. Walker	D	1	1	2	7	2	1	+2	0	22:17	0:00
K. Miller	D	1	0	1	1	3	2	+3	2	25:19	1:16
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	23:52	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	20:43	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:20	1:25
M. Reilly	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	35	30	5	.857	64:31	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1E. Malkin15:03T. Novak14:53E. Chinakhov13:52

Line 2S. Crosby14:33R. Rakell14:04B. Rust12:06

Line 3A. Mantha12:32B. Kindel11:04J. Brazeau10:23

Line 4N. Acciari11:18C. Dewar11:00E. Soderblom9:59

Pair 1K. Letang20:31R. Shea19:48

Pair 2P. Wotherspoon18:54E. Karlsson16:17

Pair 3C. Clifton13:03I. Solovyov12:05

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:48A. Svechnikov15:11S. Jarvis14:49

Line 2J. Blake15:26L. Stankoven14:04T. Hall13:23

Line 3J. Staal14:40N. Ehlers14:33J. Martinook13:21

Line 4M. Jankowski6:59E. Robinson6:41W. Carrier6:51

Pair 1K. Miller21:13S. Walker19:16

Pair 2J. Slavin16:35J. Chatfield16:11

Pair 3M. Reilly13:34A. Nikishin13:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.0, CAR 3.2	PIT 5, CAR 6
Total goals	6.2	11
Shots on goal	PIT 24.6, CAR 30.0	PIT 35, CAR 44
Win chance	CAR 53%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	2.6	5	0.77	1	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.3	0	0.76	0	27%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.3	5	0.84	1	30%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.3	5	0.88	1	31%	0
PIT E. Chinakhov	2.3	2	0.62	0	23%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.3	1	0.73	3	26%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.3	1	0.73	2	26%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.2	4	1.03	2	32%	1
PIT E. Malkin	2.0	0	0.77	1	23%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	3	0.50	3	21%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	1.9	4	0.64	3	12%	2
CAR S. Walker	1.9	7	0.29	2	8%	1
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	5	0.44	2	18%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.7	4	0.71	1	25%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	3	0.50	2	19%	1
PIT B. Kindel	1.6	2	0.42	1	17%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	2	0.31	1	7%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.6	1	0.58	0	21%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	1	0.46	1	9%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	0	0.26	0	8%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.4	2	0.43	0	18%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.40	1	17%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.4	3	0.36	0	10%	0
CAR M. Reilly	1.3	2	0.21	0	4%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.3	1	0.38	0	8%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.3	3	0.35	0	14%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	5	0.35	1	14%	1
PIT N. Acciari	1.2	5	0.29	0	13%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.2	0	0.23	0	12%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
PIT E. Soderblom	1.1	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	1	0.28	0	14%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.29	0	5%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	0.7	0	0.23	1	3%	0
PIT I. Solovyov	0.7	0	0.21	1	3%	0
PIT C. Clifton	0.6	0	0.17	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.