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Game Recap
PIT4
CGY1
PIT beat CGY 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 1.96. E. Malkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Shea had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. S. Skinner stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 7:49PITE. Malkin0.06 xG
- 2nd 12:32PITE. Chinakhov0.15 xG
- 2nd 19:57CGYY. Sharangovich0.05 xG
- 3rd 0:50PITB. Rust0.18 xG
- 3rd 9:19PITT. Novak0.12 xG
Team Stats
PITCGY
25Shots on goal19
3.07Expected goals1.96
54Shot attempts59
245v5 shots on goal17
0/1Power play0/1
17Hits24
17Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways16
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.07 xGCGY 1.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:18 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:56 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 1:18 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 1:18 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:04 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:42 |
| B. Kindel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:41 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:42 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 1:18 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:01 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:39 | 0:42 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Silovs | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 1:04 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 0:54 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:56 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:49 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:55 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:05 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:01 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 1:03 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Gridin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:55 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:02 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:12 | 0:15 |
| Z. Whitecloud | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:34 | 0:06 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:56 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| H. Brzustewicz | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:59 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
PIT
Line 2E. Malkin14:08T. Novak14:13E. Chinakhov13:30
Line 3A. Mantha14:24B. Kindel13:52J. Brazeau13:50
Line 4N. Acciari12:37C. Dewar13:20B. Lizotte12:52
Pair 1B. Kulak20:37P. Wotherspoon21:53
Pair 2C. Clifton17:57R. Graves17:14
CGY
Line 1Y. Sharangovich15:52M. Coronato17:06M. Backlund15:58
Line 3M. Pospisil12:51J. Farabee14:13M. Frost12:23
Line 4R. Lomberg13:00A. Klapka14:04J. Kirkland8:52
Pair 1K. Bahl23:22Z. Whitecloud22:24
Pair 2M. Weegar18:41Y. Kuznetsov17:29
Pair 3J. Hanley15:16H. Brzustewicz14:56
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.2, CGY 3.0 | PIT 4, CGY 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.1, CGY 28.4 | PIT 25, CGY 19 |
| Win chance | PIT 52% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 2.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.8 | 3 | 0.74 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.8 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.6 | 1 | 1.02 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.5 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.2 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.55 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kindel | 1.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Gridin | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT E. Chinakhov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PIT A. Mantha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| PIT T. Novak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| PIT J. Brazeau | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT B. Kulak | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY H. Brzustewicz | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Z. Whitecloud | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 2 | 2% | 0 |
| PIT C. Clifton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.7 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.6 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.5 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.