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Game Recap
PIT1
CHI3
CHI beat PIT 3-1, with the chances close: 3.78 expected goals to 3.12. I. Mikheyev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). E. Malkin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Knight stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
- 2nd 18:55CHIF. NazarSH0.19 xG
- 3rd 9:40CHII. Mikheyev0.22 xG
- 3rd 14:36PITR. RakellPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 19:04CHII. MikheyevEN0.95 xG
Team Stats
PITCHI
29Shots on goal31
3.12Expected goals3.78
58Shot attempts51
245v5 shots on goal25
1/3Power play0/1
27Hits19
7Blocked shots10
2Penalty minutes6
22Giveaways20
9Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
PIT 3.12 xGCHI 3.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:20 | 3:17 |
| V. Koivunen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 3:25 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:20 | 3:25 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:36 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:50 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:37 |
| D. Heinen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:19 |
| C. Dewar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:06 |
| J. Koppanen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:11 | 0:06 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:07 | 3:11 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:45 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:51 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:06 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 59:07 | Loss |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:00 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:04 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:58 |
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:54 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 1:02 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:09 | 0:58 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:50 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:42 | 0:54 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:45 | 1:14 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:38 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PIT 3.2, CHI 3.1 | PIT 1, CHI 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | PIT 29.2, CHI 26.8 | PIT 29, CHI 31 |
| Win chance | PIT 51% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.0 | 2 | 1.21 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.9 | 5 | 0.90 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.7 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.6 | 5 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.2 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.1 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.8 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| PIT R. McGroarty | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT C. Dewar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT C. Timmins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| PIT D. Heinen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.0 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT J. Koppanen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.