Game Recap: PIT 7, CHI 3, December 28, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT7

FinalSun, Dec 28, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

PIT beat CHI 7-3, with the chances close: 3.11 expected goals to 3.46. J. Brazeau scored three for PIT. J. St. Ivany had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. A. Silovs stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	4	3	0	7
CHI	0	2	1	3

1st 1:38PITA. Mantha0.21 xG
1st 7:19PITB. Rust0.07 xG
1st 8:20PITJ. Brazeau0.24 xG
1st 12:03PITB. Rust0.09 xG
2nd 10:50CHIN. Foligno0.17 xG
2nd 12:20PITJ. BrazeauPP0.21 xG
2nd 13:17PITJ. Brazeau0.10 xG
2nd 13:30CHIW. Kaiser0.01 xG
2nd 18:48PITN. Acciari0.25 xG
3rd 19:59CHIT. Bertuzzi0.07 xG

Team Stats

PITCHI

24Shots on goal24

3.11Expected goals3.46

37Shot attempts64

215v5 shots on goal23

1/2Power play0/3

17Hits26

17Blocked shots4

11Penalty minutes7

19Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.11 xGCHI 3.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT24 on goal, 7 scored

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Brazeau	RW	3	0	3	3	0	0	+1	0	11:37	0:59
B. Rust	RW	2	0	2	2	0	2	+2	2	17:38	1:03
B. Lizotte	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	15:18	0:00
A. Mantha	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	12:20	1:09
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	17:37	0:59
B. Kindel	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	15:47	1:05
C. Dewar	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	14:38	0:00
N. Acciari	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	5	13:35	0:00
V. Koivunen	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:11	0:08
T. Novak	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:33	1:09
R. Rakell	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	19:36	0:58
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:04	0:59
R. Shea	D	0	3	3	0	2	4	+5	0	19:37	0:03
J. St. Ivany	D	0	2	2	4	5	1	+2	2	19:45	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	2	21:18	0:55
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	21:27	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	-2	0	20:39	0:00
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:49	1:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	24	21	3	.875	59:31	Win
S. Skinner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:03	4:16
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:56	0:10
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:56	1:21
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	13:51	1:21
N. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	13:02	0:09
S. Lafferty	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	11:26	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	16:03	1:36
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	15:33	4:25
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	15:07	0:07
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	15:05	1:37
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	15:04	4:14
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	14:31	4:29
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	5	17:37	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:11	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	23:20	4:37
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	19:53	1:21
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:59	0:15
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:15	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	9	5	4	.556	32:03	Loss
A. Soderblom	15	12	3	.800	27:57

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1B. Rust15:44R. Rakell18:31S. Crosby16:09

Line 2V. Koivunen12:34B. Kindel12:37R. McGroarty10:36

Line 3A. Mantha11:11T. Novak11:24J. Brazeau10:38

Line 4B. Lizotte11:46N. Acciari10:59C. Dewar11:22

Pair 1K. Letang18:16B. Kulak19:09

Pair 2R. Shea16:51J. Ivany18:51

Pair 3P. Wotherspoon18:07E. Karlsson12:10

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson16:47L. Slaggert14:09T. Bertuzzi15:47

Line 2R. Greene13:26N. Lardis13:58O. Moore12:22

Line 3N. Foligno12:53C. Dach12:30S. Lafferty11:26

Line 4A. Burakovsky10:01R. Donato11:06T. Teravainen9:45

Pair 1A. Vlasic17:36L. Crevier16:14

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk18:01A. Levshunov17:14

Pair 3C. Murphy17:29W. Kaiser16:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 3.3, CHI 2.7	PIT 7, CHI 3
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	PIT 30.1, CHI 25.3	PIT 24, CHI 24
Win chance	PIT 59%	PIT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
PIT B. Rust	2.9	2	0.93	2	34%	2
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	2	1.16	1	37%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	1	0.82	0	30%	0
PIT E. Karlsson	2.6	0	0.82	0	17%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.2	2	0.41	1	19%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	2	0.74	1	30%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.1	1	0.63	0	25%	0
PIT A. Mantha	2.0	2	0.71	2	26%	1
PIT K. Letang	1.9	3	0.49	1	11%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.8	1	0.57	1	22%	0
PIT R. McGroarty	1.8	0	0.33	0	15%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.8	2	0.74	0	23%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.5	3	0.45	3	19%	3
CHI A. Levshunov	1.5	0	0.47	0	4%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.68	0	22%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	1	0.39	1	15%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.29	1	13%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.3	1	0.24	0	6%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	2	0.36	1	17%	0
PIT B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	3	0.40	1	14%	1
PIT B. Lizotte	1.2	0	0.34	2	15%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.2	3	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.33	0	3%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	0	0.24	1	11%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.1	2	0.34	0	11%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	1	0.25	1	8%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.21	1	6%	1
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.0	0	0.26	0	4%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.17	1	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.24	0	4%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	2	0.21	1	11%	1
PIT J. Ivany	0.9	4	0.11	2	3%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.8	3	0.20	0	8%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	0	0.24	3	6%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.7	1	0.17	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.