Game Recap: PIT 1, COL 4, March 4, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

PIT1

FinalTue, Mar 4, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat PIT 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.00 expected goals to 2.68. PIT outshot COL 33 to 25. A. Lehkonen led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Beauvillier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. S. Wedgewood stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	0	1	0	1
COL	0	1	3	4

2nd 6:36COLA. Lehkonen0.21 xG
2nd 18:04PITR. Rakell0.08 xG
3rd 15:51COLC. MittelstadtPP0.13 xG
3rd 18:52COLA. LehkonenEN0.41 xG
3rd 19:52COLJ. DruryEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

PITCOL

33Shots on goal25

2.68Expected goals4.00

60Shot attempts52

285v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play1/1

8Hits12

10Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways15

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.68 xGCOL 4.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT33 on goal, 1 scored

COL23 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Rust	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	20:02	1:53
R. Rakell	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:40	1:46
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	19:11	1:45
E. Malkin	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	18:55	2:13
P. Tomasino	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:31	2:16
A. Beauvillier	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	2	14:56	1:40
N. Acciari	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	14:21	0:00
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	13:39	2:08
B. Lizotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:28	0:11
C. Glass	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:46	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
E. Bemstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:24	0:00
K. Letang	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	24:18	1:56
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	24:05	1:54
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:57	0:17
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	21:08	1:49
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:45	0:12
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	23	21	2	.913	58:34	Loss
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	21:00	1:28
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	0	2	5	0	0	+2	0	20:22	1:04
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	17:34	0:24
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	13:46	0:25
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	12:56	0:00
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	12:26	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:23	1:06
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:47	1:03
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	13:14	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:33	0:22
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:15	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:50	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	23:22	1:15
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3	2	24:23	0:13
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	22:32	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:33	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:05	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	12:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSamuel Girard PIT Faces COL, his team until Feb 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.7, COL 3.5	PIT 1, COL 4
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	PIT 26.0, COL 30.7	PIT 33, COL 25
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	2	1.59	2	40%	0
COL C. Makar	3.3	2	1.26	1	29%	0
COL M. Necas	3.0	2	1.12	0	31%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.8	2	1.05	1	32%	0
PIT R. Rakell	2.7	2	0.75	1	29%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.6	2	0.92	1	35%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.5	3	0.79	1	29%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	5	0.88	2	34%	2
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	3	0.73	0	14%	0
COL D. Toews	2.2	2	0.71	0	14%	0
PIT A. Beauvillier	2.0	5	0.37	0	16%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.9	2	0.40	0	16%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.9	2	0.48	0	10%	0
PIT C. Glass	1.7	2	0.36	0	14%	0
COL J. Drury	1.7	2	0.36	1	12%	1
PIT E. Malkin	1.6	2	0.67	0	22%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	0	0.45	0	20%	0
COL M. Wood	1.6	1	0.27	0	12%	0
PIT P. Tomasino	1.5	2	0.42	0	15%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.4	1	0.77	0	18%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	0	0.40	0	7%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.2	2	0.60	1	17%	1
COL O. Kylington	1.1	2	0.30	0	8%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	0	0.31	0	12%	0
PIT M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.34	0	4%	0
PIT E. Bemstrom	1.1	1	0.21	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	1	0.24	1	10%	0
PIT D. Heinen	1.0	2	0.31	0	13%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.0	1	0.29	0	13%	0
PIT N. Acciari	1.0	1	0.17	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.26	0	12%	0
COL R. Lindgren	1.0	0	0.36	0	5%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.7	0	0.16	0	6%	0
PIT V. Kolyachonok	0.5	2	0.15	0	4%	0
PIT V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.09	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.