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Game Recap
PIT2
FinalFri, Oct 16, 2026Every game that night
COL5

COL beat PIT 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 6.65 expected goals to 3.15. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). N. MacKinnon had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.0. M. Blackwood stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
PIT2002
COL1315
  1. 1st 8:28PITE. Malkin0.22 xG
  2. 1st 8:57PITB. Rust0.25 xG
  3. 1st 11:01COLA. Lehkonen0.20 xG
  4. 2nd 0:25COLA. Lehkonen0.46 xG
  5. 2nd 4:24COLG. Landeskog0.46 xG
  6. 2nd 14:57COLT. Hughes0.20 xG
  7. 3rd 15:06COLN. MacKinnonPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

PITCOL
31Shots on goal32
3.15Expected goals6.65
64Shot attempts60
265v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play1/4
14Hits12
14Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways15
3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 3.15 xGCOL 6.65 xGGoal

012345671st2nd3rdPIT goal, 8:28PIT goal, 8:57COL goal, 11:01COL goal, 0:25COL goal, 4:24COL goal, 14:57COL goal, 15:06

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT31 on goal, 2 scored
COL30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. CrosbyC0112100019:463:16
B. RustRW101221-1018:381:42
E. MalkinC1012000017:013:16
V. KoivunenRW0111000015:461:53
R. RakellRW0005000018:513:16
T. NovakC0004010415:161:50
B. KindelC000100-1214:573:16
B. LizotteC000121-2013:450:03
C. DewarC000000-1012:290:00
A. KuzmenkoLW0002200011:031:49
N. RobertsonLW0003020011:010:00
E. SoderblomLW000033-1010:550:00
E. KarlssonD011200-1020:573:16
S. GirardD011213-1019:520:15
D. CarlileD000112-2020:160:00
K. KorczakD0001010019:320:01
K. LetangD0001200219:221:52
S. StastneyD0001000015:240:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Silovs32275.84457:26Loss
S. Murashov000–0:00

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. MacKinnonC134901+2022:595:03
M. NecasC033110+1020:583:35
A. LehkonenLW202300+1018:331:46
N. KadriC011400+2020:554:51
B. NelsonC011111+1020:271:44
G. LandeskogLW101110+1214:561:54
T. HughesRW1012000012:274:19
F. SvechkovC000101-1014:340:15
J. SchwartzLW0001110014:033:51
P. KellyC0001000012:130:00
G. BrindleyC000220028:390:00
C. MakarD022202+2022:195:04
D. ToewsD000201+2022:541:48
B. KulakD000113+1017:470:00
J. MansonD000120-1214:410:00
S. MalinskiD0000110014:230:10
B. BurnsD0000000013:390:00
N. JuulsenD000022-107:330:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. Blackwood31292.93560:00Win
S. Wedgewood000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby14:45R. Rakell13:48B. Rust13:13
Line 2E. Malkin12:20V. Koivunen12:38T. Novak11:17
Line 3C. Dewar10:01E. Soderblom9:49B. Lizotte9:55
Line 4A. Kuzmenko8:27B. Kindel8:34N. Robertson8:41
Pair 1K. Letang16:15S. Stastney14:13
Pair 2E. Karlsson14:09D. Carlile15:48
Pair 3S. Girard14:36K. Korczak14:21

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:15M. Necas15:20A. Lehkonen12:24
Line 2N. Kadri14:57B. Nelson14:14G. Landeskog11:50
Line 3J. Schwartz10:05F. Svechkov11:59T. Hughes8:08
Line 4P. Kelly9:55G. Brindley8:39
Pair 1D. Toews16:49C. Makar14:22
Pair 2B. Kulak14:14S. Malinski13:22
Pair 3B. Burns10:14J. Manson12:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-155+1229Over
PIT B. Rust2.5+130-1602Under
COL C. Makar2.5-105-1102Under
PIT E. Karlsson2.5+150-1752Under
COL M. Necas2.5+100-1201Under
COL N. Kadri2.5-122-1054Over
PIT R. Rakell2.5+120-1325Over
PIT S. Crosby2.5+130-1462Under
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-135+1103Over
COL B. Burns1.5+100-1200Under
PIT B. Kindel1.5-130+1001Under
COL B. Nelson1.5-150+1401Under
COL D. Toews1.5+105-1302Over
PIT E. Malkin1.5-155+1282Over
COL G. Landeskog1.5-170+1351Under
COL J. Schwartz1.5-115-1051Under
COL S. Malinski1.5-125-1050Under
PIT T. Novak1.5+110-1354Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamSamuel Girard PIT Faces COL, his team until Feb 20261 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScorePIT 2.8, COL 3.7PIT 2, COL 5
Total goals6.57
Shots on goalPIT 25.1, COL 31.8PIT 31, COL 32
Win chanceCOL 63%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.091.52443%1
COL N. Kadri3.040.88131%0
PIT R. Rakell2.650.72028%0
PIT S. Crosby2.520.96132%0
COL C. Makar2.521.01225%0
COL M. Necas2.411.11332%0
PIT E. Malkin2.320.77125%1
PIT B. Rust2.220.67127%1
COL G. Landeskog2.210.75129%1
PIT B. Kindel2.110.50021%0
COL B. Nelson2.110.72131%0
COL T. Hughes2.020.50119%1
COL A. Lehkonen2.030.75231%2
PIT E. Karlsson1.920.67112%0
COL S. Malinski1.800.3908%0
PIT N. Robertson1.730.36018%0
COL B. Burns1.600.3509%0
PIT T. Novak1.640.49019%0
COL J. Schwartz1.610.49020%0
COL D. Toews1.520.57011%0
COL J. Manson1.410.3607%0
PIT C. Dewar1.200.29012%0
PIT K. Letang1.210.3707%0
PIT E. Soderblom1.200.24011%0
COL P. Kelly1.110.36014%0
PIT V. Koivunen1.110.28110%0
PIT A. Kuzmenko1.120.39017%0
COL F. Svechkov1.110.33012%0
COL B. Kulak1.010.2605%0
PIT D. Carlile0.910.1705%0
PIT B. Lizotte0.910.30012%0
COL G. Brindley0.920.1807%0
PIT S. Girard0.820.3014%0
PIT K. Korczak0.610.2302%0
PIT S. Stastney0.610.1203%0
COL N. Juulsen0.500.1302%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.