Game Recap: PIT 2, DAL 3 (SO), December 7, 2025

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Game Recap

PIT2

Final/SOSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night

DAL3

DAL beat PIT 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.35 expected goals to 2.67. A. Mantha had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Oettinger stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
PIT	1	1	0	0	2
DAL	0	1	1	1	3

1st 18:18PITC. Dewar0.17 xG
2nd 1:27DALJ. Benn0.16 xG
2nd 5:56PITT. Novak0.07 xG
3rd 18:11DALM. Heiskanen0.06 xG

Team Stats

PITDAL

29Shots on goal23

2.67Expected goals3.35

68Shot attempts55

255v5 shots on goal15

0/2Power play0/1

26Hits17

19Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways23

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

PIT 2.67 xGDAL 3.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

PIT28 on goal, 2 scored

DAL23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

PIT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Crosby	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	22:20	2:53
T. Novak	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:15	1:05
B. Lizotte	C	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	13:59	0:00
N. Acciari	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	13:51	0:00
C. Dewar	C	1	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	13:39	0:00
B. Rust	RW	0	0	0	0	0	5	+1	0	19:09	1:28
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	18:57	2:51
B. Kindel	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	17:30	2:54
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:51	1:06
K. Hayes	RW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	14:12	2:01
V. Koivunen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	14:11	1:06
R. McGroarty	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:04	0:34
K. Letang	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	22:36	1:17
E. Karlsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	26:36	2:43
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:09	0:02
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:42	0:00
M. Dumba	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	16:22	0:00
R. Graves	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	15:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	23	21	2	.913	64:50	OT loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	22:39	1:18
M. Rantanen	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	22:20	1:47
J. Robertson	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	22:00	1:59
R. Hintz	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	18:11	1:17
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	+2	2	17:02	0:01
M. Duchene	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	15:55	0:43
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:11	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:40	0:42
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:25	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:33	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	11:12	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	10:47	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	0	2	27:57	1:41
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	28:53	0:13
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	19:00	0:00
N. Lundkvist	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	16:15	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:54	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:30	0:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	29	27	2	.931	63:36	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

PIT

Line 1S. Crosby17:02T. Novak14:37B. Rust14:13

Line 2A. Mantha14:34J. Brazeau12:29K. Hayes12:11

Line 3B. Kindel12:57V. Koivunen12:55R. McGroarty11:10

Line 4C. Dewar11:37B. Lizotte11:54N. Acciari11:29

Pair 1E. Karlsson19:50P. Wotherspoon19:42

Pair 2K. Letang17:51R. Shea17:58

Pair 3M. Dumba15:08R. Graves14:33

DAL

Line 1W. Johnston17:35M. Rantanen16:52M. Duchene13:43

Line 2R. Hintz14:25J. Robertson16:24J. Benn15:04

Line 3M. Bourque11:58J. Hryckowian11:16O. Bäck9:35

Line 4C. Blackwell8:58R. Faksa9:39S. Steel11:19

Pair 1M. Heiskanen20:08E. Lindell23:15

Pair 2A. Petrovic16:43K. Capobianco14:11

Pair 3V. Kolyachonok15:06N. Lundkvist15:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	PIT 2.7, DAL 3.2	PIT 2, DAL 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	PIT 27.2, DAL 27.4	PIT 29, DAL 23
Win chance	DAL 58%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	3	1.13	1	38%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.5	4	1.10	1	35%	0
PIT B. Rust	2.4	0	0.72	0	27%	0
PIT S. Crosby	2.4	1	0.90	1	30%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	2	0.82	1	32%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.3	3	0.76	1	12%	1
PIT E. Karlsson	2.3	2	0.58	0	12%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.2	1	0.85	1	31%	0
PIT B. Kindel	2.0	4	0.37	0	18%	0
PIT K. Letang	1.8	2	0.35	1	8%	0
PIT K. Hayes	1.8	4	0.37	0	15%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.5	4	0.57	1	19%	1
DAL M. Duchene	1.5	0	0.67	0	24%	0
PIT T. Novak	1.4	1	0.43	1	17%	1
PIT A. Mantha	1.4	4	0.48	0	19%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.4	1	0.35	0	14%	0
PIT C. Dewar	1.4	1	0.26	1	11%	1
PIT R. McGroarty	1.4	2	0.30	0	13%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	1	0.26	0	5%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.3	1	0.37	0	8%	0
DAL N. Lundkvist	1.3	1	0.26	0	5%	0
PIT J. Brazeau	1.3	1	0.37	0	16%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.2	0	0.37	0	12%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
PIT B. Lizotte	1.1	0	0.28	1	13%	0
PIT V. Koivunen	1.1	2	0.28	0	8%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
PIT P. Wotherspoon	1.1	0	0.21	0	3%	0
PIT M. Dumba	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.9	0	0.23	0	6%	0
PIT R. Graves	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
PIT R. Shea	0.8	1	0.19	0	5%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.8	1	0.29	0	9%	0
PIT N. Acciari	0.8	2	0.15	1	8%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.7	1	0.26	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.